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1、Turkey:GrowthpeakedatdoubledigitsinQ3Author:Turkey’sQ3GDPgrowthof11.1%y/ywaswellabovetheBloombergmarketconsensusofH.ErkinIşık,CFA8.5%,butclosetoourcallof11.0%.FX&IRCEEMEAStrategistTurkEkonomiBankA.S.Weestimatethat7ppofthe11.1%growthrelatedtodomesticexpen
2、ditureand3.6pptocapitalformation.Machineryinvestmentsroseby15.3%y/yinQ3,thehighestintwoyears.Leadingindicatorssuggesteconomicactivityissettoslowdown,andweexpecttheannualgrowthratetoeasetowards4.0%in2018,from6.5%thisyear.Higher-than-expectedTheGDPincreased
3、by11.1%y/yinQ3,significantlyabovemarketconsensusat8.5%y/yingrowthBloombergsurveybutclosetoourcallof11.0%.ThestrongGDPfigurereflecteda)baseeffects(lastyear,GDPcontractedby0.8%y/yduetocoupattempt),b)theimpactofthecreditguaranteefundandc)highernumberofworking
4、daysthisyear(thelatteraddedabout1pptotheannualgrowthrate).Domesticdemandandinvestmentexpenditurewerethetwoareasthatledtothishighgrowthrate.Weestimatehouseholdconsumptionadded7pptoQ3growthandcapitalformation3.6pp.Thesupportfromnetforeigntradefellto0.3ppfrom
5、anaverageof2.1ppintheprevioustwoquarters.DomesticdemandandWhiletheannualcomparisonpaintsarosypicture,seasonallyadjustedGDPgrowtheasedtoinvestmentdrivinggrowth1.2%q/qfromanaverageof3%inthepreviousthreequarters.Whilehouseholdconsumptionrosebyasolid1.7%q/qinQ
6、3andcapitalformationbyahigh4.0%,therewasadragongrowthfroma2.1%fallingovernmentexpenditureanda3.9%increaseintheimportsofgoods.Amonginvestmentexpenditure,machineryandequipmentinvestmentrecoveredquitesubstantially.Machineryexpenditurewasonadownwardtrendinthep
7、reviousfourquarters,butincreasedby15.2%y/yinQ3,thehighestintwoyears.Constructioninvestmentsloweddownsubstantially,toastillsolid12%y/yfrom22.5%inQ2.WeexpectgrowthtoslowWethinkGDPgrowththisyearissettopost6.5%y/ygrowth,upfrom3.2%lastyear.In2018,downto4.0%in20
8、18however,weexpectthegrowthtoslowdownto4.0%.LeadingindicatorssuggestthateconomicactivityissettoslowdowninQ12018.ThemanufacturingsectorPMIhasstartedtocomedownsinceitspeakinAugust,similartoconfidenceindicatorsi
