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1、July24,201802:58PMGMT10TurkeyEconomicsandStrategyMORGANSTANLEY&CO.INTERNATIONALPLC+ErcanErguzelECONOMIST10AHikingHolidayCitingmilderdemandconditions,theCBTkeptpolicyratesonholdfollowingthe500bptighteningcycleinApril-June.Onthestrategyfront,weremainshortTRYRUB.Wealsoreco
2、mmendpaying5y5yTRYXCCY.Ercan.Erguzel@morganstanley.comMinDaiSTRATEGISTMin.Dai@morganstanley.com1010Economics(ErcanErguzel):TheCBTkeptitsweeklyreporateonholdat17.75%,comparedtoourcallandconsensusviewexpectinga125bpand100bphike,respectively.Accordingtothestatement,theCBT
3、notesthatitrecognisestheongoingdeteriorationintheinflationoutlook,butthinksthatitispartiallydrivenbyvolatilityinfoodprices,andtheslowdownineconomicactivitytogetherwiththelaggedimpactofrecenttighteninginmonetarypolicywillstarttoleadtoaperiodofdisinflationintheupcomingmont
4、hs.Additionally,thereferencetothecontributionoffiscalpolicytotherebalancingprocessimpliesthattheCBTexpectstighteningonthefiscalandquasi-fiscalpolicyfrontsintheupcomingperiod.Giventheongoingexternalchallengesandweakerfundamentals,Turkeyprobablyneedstoofferahigherrealratev
5、ersusitspeers.Aconservative–albeitadmittedlyuncertain–'buffer'couldbeanextra200bpoverEMpeers,whichcouldtaketherealratetoaround20%.Basedonthis,wearepushingbackourexpectationofa125bphike(to19.0%)totheSeptember13meeting,andweexpectanother125bphike(to20.25%)inOctober.Localma
6、rketstrategy(MinDai):Turkey'spro-growtheconomicmodelcouldbechallengedwhenTurkishinflationisontherise,globalliquidityistighterandtheEMbackdropisn'tgreat.Highinvestment-drivengrowthhasmeantthatthecurrentaccountdeficitisinsensitivetoTRY'scheapvaluation.Shouldlocalrepatriati
7、onstopandforeignportfolioflowsnotpickup,theonlywaytoadjustthecurrentaccountdeficitisviaaweakerTRY,inourview.WeareshortTRYRUB.RealmoneyinvestorsarestillholdingontotheirlongTURKGBspositiondespitethe25%lossYTD.IthascontributedtotheiralphaduetotheirsmallUWpositionbutdraggedd
8、owntheoverallfunds'performance.WethinkthatrealmoneyinvestorshavefurtherroomtobeUWTURKGBs,giventhatthere
