德银-美股-宏观经济-白宫观点：健康回调

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1、marcos.arana@db.commatthew.luzzetti@db.commichael.hsueh@db.com7February2018AhealthypullbackheHouseViewDistributedon:07/02/201807:11:00GMTesearchDeutscheBankRTDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017.7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaMonthinRev

2、iewMarketWatch,2-Feb-2018Bloomberg,5-Feb-2018FT,5-Feb-2018Bloomberg,25-Jan-2018FT,28-Jan-2018CNBC,24-Jan-2018Bloomberg,26-Jan-2018Reuters,25-Jan-2018FT,25-Jan-2018FT,14-Jan-2018CITAYA.M,24-Jan-2018FT,26-Jan-2018TheIndependent,26-Jan-2018Reuters,26-Jan-2018Los

3、AngelesTimes,17-Jan-2018Bloomberg,26-Jan-2018Bloomberg,2-Feb-2018Reuters,22-Jan-2018FT,23-Jan-2018DW,18-Jan-2018DeutscheBankthehouseview@list.db.comhttp://houseview.research.db.com2ResearchTheHouseView–7February2018TheHouseView,6February2018AhealthypullbackAf

4、terastellar2017andanevenstrongerJanuary,riskassetshaveundergoneaTableofcontentssharppullbackinthelastweek.Initiallytriggeredbyhigherratesasmarketsrepriced4-boxesIntroductionTotalreturnsinflationexpectationshigher,theepisodeevolvedintoatechnicalspoutofvolati

5、lityexacerbatedbyprogrammaticstrategies.FlyingstartMarketAsharpbuthealthyThepullbackishealthy,afterahighlyunusualstretchofmarkettranquility.Foroverviewpullbackinstance,theS&P500hadnothada3%pullbackinover300tradingdays;marketSell-offoverdonepositioninghadbe

6、comestretched.However,themovesnowappearoverdone.WeFXoutlookWeakerdollararenowwellpastthetypical3-5%pullback,andthesell-offhasgonebeyondthatduring2013’sTaperTantrumwhichwastriggeredbyamuchsharperriseinrates.GlobalgrowthoverviewMacroInflationoutlookFundament

7、alsremainsupportiveofriskassets.Therobust,broad-basedglobaloutlookCentralbanksoverviewItalianelectionandBrexitexpansioncontinuesandinflationwillatlastacceleratein2018.WeexpectthesetrendstoevolvesteadilyenoughforcentralbankstotightenmonetarypolicyForecastsF

8、orecastsgraduallyasplanned.Stronggrowthandrisingbutnothighratesshouldcontinuetosupportcorporateearningsandequityvaluationsevenasbondyieldssteadilyrise.Still,weexpectmarketturbulencetoretu