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1、DeutscheBankResearchNorthAmericaEconomicsDateUnitedStates21November2017USEconomicPerspectivesFedpolicyframework:Istheprice(level)right?MatthewLuzzetti,PhD■Inrecentweeks,manyFedofficialshaveraisedthepossibilityofre-SeniorEconomistconsideringtheFed'scurrentpolicyframeworkoftargetinga2%infla
2、tion+1-212-250-6161rate.ThispossibilityhasbeenmentionedbyregionalFedpresidentsacrossthehawk-dovespectrum,includingMester,Williams,Bostic,andJustinWeidnerEvans.Tomorrow’sminutescouldprovidefurtherindicationsthatthisEconomistisbecomingalivelydebateamongFedofficials.Giventhebreadthand+1-212
3、-469-1679increaseintheintensityofthisdiscussion,marketsshouldtakenote.PeterHooper,PhD■Thereareseveralreasonswhythisdebateisheatingup.First,thereisChiefEconomistagrowingconsensusamongFedofficialsthatr-starislikelytoremain+1-212-250-7352low,increasingtheoddsofhittingthezerolowerboundandred
4、ucingthecurrentframework'seffectiveness.Second,theturnoverinFedleadershipBrettRyanpresentsanopeningforaseriousre-thinkofitspolicyframework.Third,SeniorUSEconomisttherelativelycalmeconomicbackdropisconducivetothisdebate,and+1-212-250-6294aframeworkchange,ifitoccurs,wouldbeinplacewellbefo
5、rethenextdownturn.Fourth,theFedmaybeconstrainedinitsfutureuseofTorstenSlok,PhDextraordinarymonetarypolicy,soaframeworkthatmakesitlesslikelytoChiefEconomistbeinthatsituationwouldimprovemonetarypolicy'soveralleffectiveness.+1-212-250-2155■Wedetailvariousoptionsfornewframeworks,focusingont
6、heprosandconsofeach,alongwithmarketimplications.Theseoptionsincludeahigherinflationtarget,priceleveltargeting,nominalGDPtargeting,temporaryversionsoftheprecedingframeworks,andenhancedforwardguidancewhenthefedfundsrateisatthezerolowerbound.■Alloftheoptionshavedrawbacksandnoneclearlydomin
7、atethecurrentframework.Weviewahigherinflationratetargetasleastlikely,andseeabitmoremeritinaprice-levelornominalGDPtargetingframework.Ofnotearethetemporaryversions,whichonlyapplyattheeffectivelowerbound,mitigatingthecoststhatsocietybearsinnormaltimes.■Giventhesignificantdrawbackstoeachop
