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1、DeutscheBankResearchNorthAmericaEconomicsDateUnitedStates16November2017USEconomicPerspectivesUSOutlook:AfirmerFedtokeeptheeconomyfromoverheatingPeterHooper,PhD■As2017drawstowardaclose,theUSeconomyisongoodfootingChiefEconomistforcontinuedabove-trendgrowthin2018andbeyond.Privatesector
2、+1-212-250-7352fundamentalsaremostlysolid,thelabormarkethasmorethanachievedfullemployment,andfinancialconditionsarehighlysupportiveofgrowth.MatthewLuzzetti,PhDTheprimaryquandaryintheeconomicpictureiswhereisinflation?SeniorEconomist+1-212-250-6161■WecontinuetoexpectrealGDPgrowthof2.5%
3、for2017(Q4/Q4),inlinewiththeabove-consensusforecastwepresentedaroundmid-year.AkeyBrettRyandevelopmenthasbeenabroadeningofgrowthdriversbeyondconsumerSeniorUSEconomistspending,ascapexandtradehavestrengthenedinrecentquarters.Our+1-212-250-62942018forecastisalsounchangedat2.3%,whilewer
4、aisedour2019projectionatenthto2.1%.Weexpectgrowthtoslowsignificantlyin2020.TorstenSlok,PhDChiefEconomist■Withgrowthabovepotentialovertheyearahead,weexpectsignificant+1-212-250-2155furtherlabormarkettightening.ContrarytotheFOMCmedianandconsensus,whichseeunemploymentlevelingoffatjustabo
5、ve4%,weJustinWeidnerhaveitfallingto3.5%byearly2019.Itshouldbegintoriseagainin2020.Economist+1-212-469-1679■Althoughinflationshouldremainlowthroughyear-end,ourmedium-termviewthatcoreinflationshouldnormalizeisintact.SupportingSouravDasguptathisconstructiveoutlookarepositivesignalsfroma
6、varietyofleadingResearchAssociateindicatorsincludingrealGDPgrowthandimportprices,amongothers.Wealsodiscussafewstructuralforcesthatmayweighoninflation.RajsekharBhattacharyya■OurFedviewisunchanged:weexpectthenextrateincreaseinDecember,ResearchAssociatefollowedbythreehikesin2018andfour
7、in2019.ThisexpectationisabovetheFed’sprojections,asabove-targetinflationandanundershootofunemploymentbelowNAIRUforcetheFedtoraiseratesfurtherthanthemedianFOMCprojectionenvisions.FedtighteningshouldbesufficienttobegintomoveunemploymentbacktowardNAIRUby2020.■ThemostnotablerecentFeddevel
8、opmentisanear-wholesaletra
