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1、Completed14Dec201711:14PMESTDisseminated15Dec201712:15AMESTNorthAmericaEquityResearch15December2017Property&CasualtyInsurance2018Outlook:IndustryCouldBenefitfromGradualRiseinPrices,LowInflationandTaxReformIsNetPositiveOverall,wethinktheP&Cinsuranceindustryiswellpositionedheadedinto20
2、18Property&CasualtyInsuranceaspricescouldbegintorise,lossinflationremainslow,andtaxreformisanetACSarahEDeWitt,CFApositive(althoughtheimpactbycompanyismixed).Thereappearstobegrowing(1-212)622-6461disciplineamonginsurerstoincreasepricesacrossmostlinesgivenlowinterestsarah.e.dewitt@jpmo
3、rgan.comratesandinadequatereturnsinsomelines.Furthermore,record2H17catastropheBloombergJPMADEWITTlossesgiveinsurersaircovertoraiseprices.WealsothinktheU.S.insurerscouldKeithCorneliusbenefitfromtaxreform,whilethereinsurersandnon-U.S.–domiciledbrokersare(1-212)622-9517unlikelytosee
4、anybenefit.Finally,ifinterestratesrise,thisisanetbenefitforkeith.cornelius@jpmorgan.comthegroup,althoughnotasmuchasotherfinancials.WithinP&Cinsurance,weJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCpreferthepersonallines,followedbytheinsurancebrokersandcommerciallines,thenreinsurers.Thepersonallineswillben
5、efitfromrobustpriceincreasesaswellastaxreform.Theinsurancebrokersandprimarycommercialinsurerscouldbenefitfromhigherpriceswithmixedresultsfromtaxreform.Finally,whilethereinsurerscouldalsoseepriceincreases,wethinkitwillbeshort-livedduetointensecompetition,theyareunlikelytobenefitfromta
6、xreformand4QwillbechallengingduetoCaliforniawildfires.P&CInsurancePricesCouldBegintoRise.WethinknumerousleadingindicatorssuggestP&Cinsurancepricescouldbegintograduallyimprove.Inprimarycommercialinsurance,wethinkpropertypricescouldbeupmid-to-high-singledigitsfollowingthe2H17cats,whil
7、ecasualtylinescouldstabilizeandbegintograduallyriseasleadinginsurersseektoeventuallyachievepricesthatatleastkeeppacewithinflation(~4%).Inreinsurance,U.S.propertyreinsurancepricescouldbeupabout8-10%overall,althoughthislevelofpriceincreaseprobablyonlyresultsinareturnto2015pricinglevels
8、andthesustai
