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1、CHAPTERFOURRegionalGrowthandRegionalDeclineHolgerBreinlich*,GianmarcoI.P.Ottaviano†,andJonathanR.W.Temple‡*UniversityofEssex,CEPandCEPRLondonSchoolofEconomics,CEPandCEPRUniversityofBristolandCEPRAbstractSincetheearly1990s,therehasbeenarenaissanceinthestudyofregionalgrowth,sp
2、urredbynewmodels,methods,anddata.Wesurveyarangeofmodelingtraditions,andsomeformalapproachestothehardproblemofregionaleconomics;namely,thejointconsiderationofagglomerationandgrowth.Wealsoreviewempiricalmethodsandfindingsbasedonnaturalexperiments,spatialdiscontinuitydesigns,and
3、structuralmodels.Throughout,wegiveconsiderableattentiontoregionalgrowthindevelopingcountries.Finally,wehighlightthepotentialimportanceofprocessesthatarespecifictoregionaldecline,andwhichdeservegreaterresearchattention.KeywordsRegionalgrowth,Regionalconvergence,Regionaldecline
4、JELClassificationCodesO18,R11,R12,R13Europe,asithasbecomemoreintegrated,hasalsobecomemoredifficulttowriteabout.PerryAnderson,“TheNewOldWorld”,p.xi4.1.INTRODUCTIONFrom2006onwards,anexhibitionofphotographshastouredgalleriesinEuropeandtheUSA,nowtitledTheRuinsofDetroit.Thephotograp
5、hs,byYvesMarchandandRomainMeffre,showvariousscenesfromtherecentpastofAmericasMotorCity:theruinedSpanish-GothicinterioroftheUnitedArtistsTheater(closed1984),theabandonedwaitinghallofMichiganCentralStation(closed1988),thederelictballroomoftheLeePlazaHotel(closedearly1990s),and
6、anabandonedschoolbookdepositorywithitstextbooksscatteredandcoveredindebris.Thephotographsbringhome,inawaythatstatisticsdonot,whatitcanmeanforacityorregiontoexperienceanextendedperiodofdecline.InDetroitscase,thatdeclinehasbeenprecipitous:fromoneofAmericasHandbookofEconomicGro
7、wth,Volume2B©2014ElsevierB.V.ISSN1574-0684,http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-53540-5.00004-5Allrightsreserved.683684HolgerBreinlichetal.wealthiestcities,withacitypopulationofaround1.8millionatitspeak,toapopulationthatisnowaround700,000.Ithasleftthecitywithfallingpropertyv
8、alues,enoughvacantlandtoaccommodatethewholeofParis,andarateofviolentcrimeam