钢铁行业冬季展望：供需矛盾累积.docx

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1、内容目录中周期和短周期矛盾累积.-5-地产逐步降温......................................................................................................-6-短周期顶部临近...........................................................................................-6-中周期均值回归...........................................................

2、................................-9-基建低于预期....................................................................................................-10-库存去化时间紧迫.............................................................................................-13-供应压力渐增.........................................

3、...........................................................-15-产能仍在增加.............................................................................................-15-冬季限产力度一般.....................................................................................-16-投资策略..............................

4、..............................................................................-17-风险提示............................................................................................................-17-图表目录图表1：钢价在2、3季度反弹.-5-图表2：铁矿石价格在2、3季度大幅上涨.........................................................-

5、5-图表3：螺纹钢吨毛利变化.................................................................................-5-图表4：热轧板吨毛利变化.................................................................................-5-图表5：8月地产销售面积增速创出近年新高.....................................................-6-图表6：三季度房价有抬头迹象.............

6、.............................................................-7-图表7：居民再度加杠杆.....................................................................................-7-图表8：62家上市房企中仅少数三道红线均达标...............................................-8-图表9：新开工9月单月同比转负...............................................

7、.......................-8-图表10：土地购置同比三季度转负....................................................................-8-图表11：施工面积回落.......................................................................................-9-图表12