人工智能，战略稳定与核风险.docx

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1、ArtiftcialIntelligence,StrategicStabilityandNuclearRiskvincentboulanin,lorasaalman,petrtopychkanov,feisuandmoapeldáncarlssonJune2020ContentsPrefacevAcknowledgementsviAbbreviationsviiExecutiveSummaryix1.Introduction1Box1.1.Keydefinitions62.Understandin

2、gtheAIrenaissanceanditsimpactonnuclearweapons7I.UnderstandingtheAIrenaissance7II.AIandnuclearweaponsystems:Past,presentandfuture18Box2.1.Automatic,automated,autonomous:Therelationshipbetween15automation,autonomyandmachinelearningBox2.2.Historicalcases

3、offalsealarmsinearlywarningsystems20Box2.3.DeadHandandPerimetr22Figure2.1.Abriefhistoryofartificialintelligence10Figure2.2.Thebenefitsofmachinelearning11Figure2.3.Approachestothedefinitionandcategorizationofautonomous14systemsFigure2.4.Benefitsofauton

4、omy16Figure2.5.ForeseeableapplicationsofAIinnucleardeterrence243.AIandthemilitarymodernizationplansofnuclear-armedstates31I.TheUnitedStates33II.Russia44III.TheUnitedKingdom52IV.France59V.China67VI.India78VII.Pakistan87VIII.NorthKorea93Box3.1.Theartifi

5、cialintelligencerace32Figure3.1.Recentpolicydevelopmentsrelatedtoartificialintelligencein34theUnitedStatesFigure3.2.Recentpolicydevelopmentsrelatedtoartificialintelligencein45RussiaFigure3.3.Recentpolicydevelopmentsrelatedtoartificialintelligencein53t

6、heUnitedKingdomFigure3.4.Recentpolicydevelopmentsrelatedtoartificialintelligencein60FranceFigure3.5.Recentpolicydevelopmentsrelatedtoartificialintelligencein68ChinaandrelatedsystemsFigure3.6.Recentpolicydevelopmentsrelatedtoartificialintelligencein79I

7、ndiaFigure3.7.Recentpolicydevelopmentsrelatedtoartificialintelligencein88PakistanTable3.1.ApplicationsofartificialintelligenceofinteresttotheUSDepartment38ofDefenseTable3.2.StateofadoptionofartificialintelligenceintheUnitedStates42Table3.3.Stateofadop

8、tionofartificialintelligenceintheRussiannuclear50deterrencearchitectureTable3.4.StateofadoptionofartificialintelligenceintheBritishnuclear58deterrencearchitectureTable3.5.StateofadoptionofartificialintelligenceintheFrenchnuclear66deterrencearc