巴黎银行-新兴市场-投资策略-墨西哥宏观观察：是狂风暴雨还是微波起伏？-2019.7.5.pdf

《巴黎银行-新兴市场-投资策略-墨西哥宏观观察：是狂风暴雨还是微波起伏？-2019.7.5.pdf》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、MEXICOMACROTRACKER:ISITASTORMORJUSTCHOPPYWATERS?DEEPDIVEJoelVirgenRojano,Economist

2、BNPParibasSecuritiesCorp.Pleaserefertoimportantinformationatthe™endofthisreportJuly2019MEXICOOUTLOOKUPDATE20192020GDPrealgrowth(y/y)Ourdownwardrevisiontogrowthacknowledgesrecenteconomicperfor

3、mance,overall1.5%1.0%1.0%1.0%=implicationsofleadingindicatorsandpolicyuncertaintythatcoulddeterinvestment.Inflation(y/y,eop)3.7%3.7%=WestillexpectupsidepressureonCPItofadegraduallyandtheheadlineandcore3.4%3.4%=componentstoendtheyearwithinBanxico’s2-4%variabilityrange.Banxic

4、orate(y/y,eop)7.75%7.50%WerecentlyupdatedourmonetarypolicyoutlookafterBanxico's“dovish”toneatits6.75%6.75%=Junemeeting.Primarysurplus(%ofGDP)0.0%0.3%TheFinanceMinistryappearswillingtokeepslashingspendinginordertomeetthe-0.7%-0.5%primarysurplustargetof1%ofGDP.Weremainskeptic

5、alonthegovernmentmeetingthetarget.Sources:BNPParibas2MEXICOMACROTRACKER:ISITASTORMORJUSTCHOPPYWATERS?1STRONGWINDS:GLOBALCONDITIONSANDMEXICO2HIGHWAVES:ISTHEPOLITICALCYCLEBACK?3HAIL:TIMEFORMONETARYPOLICYNORMALIZATION?HEAVYPRECIPITATION:PEMEX,CREDITRATINGORFISCAL4TARGETBAROMET

6、ERREADINGS:APOPULARGOVERNMENT,5HOPEFULPOPULATION31GLOBALCONDITIONSANDMEXICOGrowthinthedevelopedworldisdeceleratingandEMeconomiesarenotimmune.Yet,wearenotexpectingaglobalrecession.EMglobaltradeisalreadycontractingandanenvironmentofprotectionismdoesnotmakethingseasier.Awea

7、kUSDshouldhelpEMsthroughsupportivecommodityprices.HighexposuretotheU.S.economyalongwithlimitedexposuretocommodityisespeciallyimportantforcountrieslikeMexico.TheMexicaneconomyhasalreadydecelerated,prettymuchintandemwithaweakU.S.manufacturingindustryandleadingindicatorsdono

8、tsuggestaturningpointisonthehorizon.4ISMEXICOIMMUNETOAGLOBALDECELERATION?NO,ITISNOT.GLOBALCONDITIONSFromourQ32019EMoutlook–DifferentiationmattersMATTERBNPPEMex-ChinaexportsgrowthtrackervsBNPPEMGDPgrowthvsexportsgrowthtrackersChineseimports(%y/ygrowth,3mma)(%q/qs.a.growth)Ou

9、rtrademonitorsuggestsEMexportshaveyettorecover,posingadownsidebiasforeconomicactiv