巴黎银行-全球-石油与天然气行业-聚焦全球：石油价格预测和石油平衡-20190815.pdf

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1、FOCUS

2、GlobalPleaserefertoimportantinformationand15August2019MARdisclosuresattheendofthisreportCOMMODITIESOILPRICEFORECASTSANDOILBALANCETable1:RecentpricetrendsPrev.ClosePrev.Closevs.1Jan2019Prev.Closevs.2Jan201814Aug1914Jul1916Jun19Change%Change01Jan19Change%

3、Change01Jan18NYMEXWTI(USD/bbl)55.2360.2152.518.6918.7%46.54-5.14-8.5%60.37ICEBrent(USD/bbl)58.9967.0062.044.317.9%54.68-7.56-11.4%66.55Dubai(USD/bbl)59.6365.8659.897.7815.0%51.85-4.73-7.3%64.36NYMEXRBOB(USD/bbl)70.3883.0372.7714.7026.4%55.68-3.67-5.0%74.05Eur

4、obob(USD/bbl)69.8779.6571.6112.8522.5%57.02-3.12-4.3%72.99SGPUnl(USD/bbl)71.4378.6065.8216.4730.0%54.96-5.06-6.6%76.49NYMEXHeatingOil(USD/bbl)77.4483.1676.836.018.4%71.43-9.01-10.4%86.45ICEGasoil(USD/bbl)75.9781.6175.677.7811.4%68.19-4.30-5.4%80.27SGPGasoil(U

5、SD/bbl)75.9580.3572.5614.3523.3%61.60-2.77-3.5%78.72USG3%FOWaterborne(USD/bbl)41.2060.3553.08-8.63-17.3%49.83-14.78-26.4%55.98NWE3%HSFO(USD/bbl)38.6259.8451.34-5.98-13.4%44.61-15.08-28.1%53.70SGP180cst(USD/bbl)52.8972.4057.791.352.6%51.54-6.78-11.4%59.66NYMEX

6、RBOB(US¢/gal)167.57197.69173.2635.0026.4%132.57-8.74-5.0%176.31Eurobob(USD/tonne)582.00663.50596.50107.0022.5%475.00-26.00-4.3%608.00NYMEXHeatingOil(US¢/gal)184.38198.00182.9314.318.4%170.07-21.45-10.4%205.83ICEGasoil(USD/tonne)565.98607.99563.7457.9611.4%508

7、.02-32.04-5.4%598.01Table2:BNPParibas(periodaverage)priceforecasts*PriceforecastIssueDate2018Q1Q2Q3fQ4f2019fQ1fQ2fQ3fQ4f2020fNYMEXWTI(USD/bbl)15/08/1964.8154.7559.995550554850525451ICEBrent(USD/bbl)15/08/1971.5963.6968.566155625253545754Dubai(USD/bbl)15/08/19

8、69.4263.2067.636154615152535553NYMEXRBOB(USD/bbl)15/08/1980.4866.3481.427360705770736767Eurobob(USD/bbl)15/08/1978.8764.2879.647359695467726565SGPPremUnl(USD/bbl)15/08/1980.2067.1875.127163695963676463NYMEXHeatingOil(USD/bbl)15/08/1987.9681.1483.4579778077747

9、27174ICEGasoil(USD/bbl)15/08/1985.6879.1182.067774787471697071SGPGasoil0.05%(USD/bbl)15/08/1984.0675.8779.977674767370686770USG3%FOWaterborne(USD/bbl)15/08/1961.4061.0461.2649355229333740