汇丰银行-全球-石油与天然气行业-全球整装油：投资回报期

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1、15February2018GlobalintegratedoilsEQUITIESOIL,GAS&CONSUMABLEFUELSPaybacktimeGlobalSectorappearsmispricedonyieldrelativegivenitsFCFoutlookOILANDGASPRICEASSUMPTIONSHighercashdistributionsshoulddriveare-ratingAnnualaverage201620172018e2019eBrent145.154.865.070.0WTI143.450.961.56

2、8.0Buy-ratedstocks:BP,ENI,TOT;targetpricescut6%onavgNymexgas22.553.023.003.25toreflecttheimpactoflowermarketmultiplesonvaluationsUKspotgas334.745.043.045.0Quarterlyaverage1Q18e2Q18e3Q18e4Q18eBrent163.065.065.067.0Scripdividenddilutionhasstopped.Freecashbreakevensarefallingtothemid-

3、WTI158.061.062.065.0USD50s/b.Nextstopisbalancesheetde-leveraging,thenincreasedcashpayouts.Nymexgas23.003.003.003.00UKspotgas346.039.039.048.0Cashflowsetforstronggrowth:Disappointing4QcashflowfromseveralNote:1=USD/b,2=USD/mBtu,3=GBp/thcompaniesseemslargelydowntotemporaryfactors,andwe

4、stillexpectsectorcashSource:Bloomberg,HSBCestimatesflowgrowthof24%in2018eatUSD65/bBrent,takingtheEuropeanoils’(butnottheirUSpeers’)aggregatecashgenerationbackto2013-14levels.GordonGray*2018–backtoexcessfreecashflow:WithcrudepricebreakevensdownintheGlobalHeadofOilandGasEquityResearch

5、HSBCBankplcmid-USD50s/b,wethink2018willseetheEuropeanoilsgeneratetheirhighestgordon.gray@hsbcib.comorganicfreecashflowin12years.Thisshouldinitiallytranslateintosignificantde-+442079916787leveraging–weseeaveragebalancesheetgearingdown200bpin2018e.KimFustier*Analyst,Oil&GasThereafter,

6、weexpectbuybackstorestart,with2019edistributionyields(dividendsHSBCBankplcplusbuybacks)of7-8%fortheEuropeansupermajors,and5-6%fortheirUSpeers.kim.fustier@hsbc.com+442033592136Sectormispricedonyieldrelative:inourview,thebigoils’dividendyieldsrelativeSwarupBhattar*tomarket(c180%forthe

7、Europeans,c200%fortheUSmajors)areunjustifiablyhigh,AssociateBangaloreandsymptomaticofstill-highinvestorcaution.Asevidenceemergesthisyearoftheirfreecashstrength,weexpectimprovedconfidenceintheoutlooktotranslateintoa*Employedbyanon-USaffiliateofHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc,andissectorre-rat

8、ing.Yieldrelativesm