汇丰银行-全球-石油与天然气行业-2018年的石油：回到六十年代

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1、8January2018Oilin2018EQUITIESOIL&GASSwingingbacktothesixtiesGlobalInventoriessettoreturntonormallevelsbyaroundmid-yearUSsupply+1mbdin‘18e;furtherUSgrowthneededlong-termWecontinuetoassumeaverageBrentpricesofUSD65/bfor2018eandUSD70/bfor2019e;consensusstilllookstoolowBrentcrudestarts2018in

2、themid-USD60s/b–itsfirstreturntothislevelsincelate2014.Anear-termcorrectionlooksquitepossiblegiventhespeedoftherally,butwethinkmarketfundamentalsarebecomingincreasinglysupportiveofpricesaboveUSD60/b.Threemainfactorsshoulddrivetheglobalsupply/demandbalancein2018:Strongdemandgrowth.Consensusesti

3、matesexpectdemandtogrowanotherGordonGray*GlobalHeadofOil&GasEquityResearch1.3-1.5mbdin2018e.Thisisnotasstrongastheexceptionalgrowthof2015-17HSBCBankplcasOECDdemandlooksflattish,butisstillrobustbyhistoricalstandardsgordon.gray@hsbcib.com+442079916787SurgingUSsupply.AlthoughtheUSrigcounthasstall

4、ed,therateofwellCharlesSwabey*completionscontinuestogrowascompletioncapacityreturns.WeestimatethisOil&GasAnalystHSBCBankplcwilldriveUStight(“shale”)oilsupplygrowthof1.1mbdin2018ealonecharles.swabey@hsbc.com+442032683954ContinuedOPECrestraint.OPEC’sextensionofitscutsshouldallowtheKimFustier*mar

5、kettocontinuetotightenthisyear,albeitgradually;weforecasta0.2mbdAnalystaveragesupplydeficitacross2018eHSBCBankplckim.fustier@hsbc.com+442033592136Inventoriesbacktonormalbymid-year:OPEC’scutsareaimedatbringingglobalinventoriesbackdowntofive-yearaveragelevels.AlargepartofthejobwasdoneinThomasHilb

6、oldt*,CFAHeadofResourcesandEnergyResearch,Asia-Pacific2017–theUSinventorysurpluswas~4%aty/evs>20%atthepeak,whiletheTheHongKongandShanghaiBankingCorporationLimitedlatest(Oct)datashowsOECDinventories5%above.Demandseasonalitypointstoathomaschilboldt@hsbc.com.hk+85228222922possiblesmallsurplusin1Q1

7、8e,butatightermarketin2Qandespecially3Q,whichDavidPhillipsshoulderadicatetheremaininginventorysurplusbyaround3Q.GlobalHeadofResourcesandEnergyResearchHSBCSecurities(USA)Inc.Longterm–moreUSsupplyneeded:By2019,weseeroomforOPECtounwi