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1、FOCUS
2、GLOBALPleaserefertoimportantinformationand15August2019MARdisclosuresattheendofthisreportMARKETECONOMICS
3、G10FX
4、G10INTERESTRATES
5、EMECONOMICS
6、EMSTRATEGY
7、MACROQUANT&DERIVATIVESTradetensions–SummerofdiscontentKEYMESSAGESTABLEOFCONTENTSTheannouncementofnewUStarif
8、fsmakesaSpectreofglobalrecession………………………………….2comprehensivetradedealwithChinaevenmoreEscalationofUS–Chinatradetensions………………………3difficult,inourview,andtradetensionsarenowGlobalgrowth:Slipperyslope………………………………....4morelikelytoescalatethantoberesolved.Emergingmark
9、ets:WeakerGDPgrowth,lowerrates..........6Eurozonerates:Muchisalreadypricedin...........................7PastandnewtariffsandpersistentpolicyUSrates:All-timelowspossibleinUS10y..........................8uncertaintyarelikelytoweighontheglobalFXmarketoutlookandkeytr
10、ades.......................................9economicoutlookMacroquant:Factoranalysisofassetprices………………10OurforecastsareunderreviewpendingtheupcomingquarterlyGlobalOutlook.Wearepreparingtodowngradeouralreadybelow-AUTHORSconsensusgrowthforecastsacrossbothdeveloped
11、LuigiSperanza,ChiefGlobalEconomistandemergingeconomies.BNPParibasLondonBranchWeexpecttheFedtocutratesbyanadditionalXingdongChen,HeadofGMEconomicResearch50bpthisyear,ratherthanthe25bpwepreviouslyChinaBNPParibas(China)Limitedforecasted,andweseeapossibilityofasmucha
12、sDanielAhn,ChiefUSEconomistandHeadofMarkets360100bpincumulativecutsthisyear.NorthAmericaBNPParibasSecuritiesCorpWenowexpectatleast14EMcentralbankstocutRyutaroKono,HeadofGMEconomicResearch,Japanratesbyyear-end.BNPParibasSecurities(Japan)LimitedMarceloCarvalho,Head
13、ofGlobalEmergingMarketsResearchBNPParibasLondonBranchKEYMARKETVIEWSGabrielGersztein,HeadofGlobalEmergingMarketsStrategyBancoBNPParibasBrasilS.A.FX:ShortUSDJPY,target104,stoptrailedtoPierreMathieu,SeniorCrossAssetStrategist107,enteredat108.45on10July2019.ThisBNPPa
14、ribasLondonBranchtradehasperformed,butwecontinuetoseeEricOynoyan,G10RatesStrategist,Europesomeupside,especiallyinamorerisk-offBNPParibasLondonBranchenvironment
