石油价格预测与石油平衡

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1、HarryTchilinguirian,EconomistOil

2、BNPParibasLondonBranchSource:Bloomberg,PlattsandBNPParibas*ConversionfactorsforEuropeproducts:8.33forgasolineand7.45forgasoil.USconversionfactors42gallonstoabarrel.*Notethatforecastedannualaveragesarethoseatthetimeofpublicationandarenotam

3、endedasandwhenrealisedquarterlyaveragesareupdatedinthetable.

4、FOCUS02/04/20191Table2:Priceforecasts*FOCUS

5、Global02April2019PleaserefertoimportantinformationandMARdisclosuresattheendofthisreportCOMMODITIESTable1:RecentpricetrendsOILPRICEFORECASTSANDOILBALANCE01Jan1860.3766

6、.5564.3674.0572.9976.4986.4580.2778.72176.31608.00205.83598.01%Change2.0%3.9%6.0%7.7%7.1%1.4%-3.4%1.8%2.2%7.7%7.1%-3.4%1.8%Change1.222.613.855.705.161.05-2.951.471.7513.5743.00-7.0210.9501Jan1946.5454.6851.8555.6857.0254.9671.4368.1961.60132.57475.00170.07508.02%Change32

7、.3%26.5%31.5%43.2%37.1%41.1%16.9%19.9%30.6%43.2%37.1%16.9%19.9%Change15.0514.4816.3524.0721.1322.5812.0713.5518.8757.31176.0028.74100.9501Feb1955.2662.9060.8560.3561.4461.1080.3378.4672.54143.69511.75191.26584.5301Mar1955.8065.0066.6072.6765.1370.5484.0482.5281.86173.025

8、42.50200.10614.77Prev.Closevs.2Jan2017Prev.Closevs.1Jan2018Prev.Close01Apr1961.5969.1668.2079.7578.1577.5483.5081.7480.47189.88651.00198.81608.96NYMEXWTI(USD/bbl)ICEBrent(USD/bbl)Dubai(USD/bbl)NYMEXRBOB(USD/bbl)Eurobob(USD/bbl)SGPUnl(USD/bbl)NYMEXHeatingOil(USD/bbl)ICEGa

9、soil(USD/bbl)SGPGasoil(USD/bbl)NYMEXRBOB(US¢/gal)Eurobob(USD/tonne)NYMEXHeatingOil(US¢/gal)ICEGasoil(USD/tonne)Source:Bloomberg,PlattsandBNPParibasPriceforecastIssueDate2017Q1Q2Q3Q42018Q1Q2fQ3fQ4f2019fNYMEXWTI(USD/bbl)05/02/1950.9262.8567.8969.4959.0064.8154.7562666161IC

10、EBrent(USD/bbl)05/02/1954.7367.1974.9875.8668.3471.5963.6969736768Dubai(USD/bbl)05/02/1953.1263.9772.0574.1567.5169.4263.2070726668NYMEXRBOB(USD/bbl)05/02/1968.3578.1688.5786.4068.7980.4866.3477817273Eurobob(USD/bbl)05/02/1965.7374.0884.8486.4870.0878.8764.2875817172SGPP

11、remUnl(USD/bbl)05/02/1967.9677.6584.2285.7473.2180.2067.1877807274NYMEXHeatingOil(US$/bbl)05/02/1969.85