新兴市场季度报告：启动失败.docx

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1、DeutscheBankResearchGlobalEmergingMarketsEmergingMarketsQuarterlyDate12March2020FailingtoLaunchSource:DBImageGalleryDrausioGiacomelliStrategist+1-212-250-7355SebastianA.BrownStrategist+1-212-250-8191HongtaoJiangStrategist+1-212-250-2524SameerGoelMacro

2、Strategist+65-64236973JulianaLeeChiefEconomist+852-2203-8312KubilayOzturkChiefEconomist+44-20-754-55157ChristianWietoskaStrategist+44-20-754-52424DeutscheBankSecuritiesInc.Distributedon:12/03/202021:15:12GMTDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDI

3、NAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)066/04/2019.7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaTableofContentsExecutiveSummary(Page3)KeyEconomicForecasts(Page4)Outlooks(Page5)nMacroOutlook:Half-empty(Page5)nFXOutlook:FromWeaktoweaker(Page11)nEMRatesOutlook:Bewareofoutflows(Page15)nSovereignCreditOutlook

4、-Thefallingofthelinchpin(Page19)ThematicReports(Page23)nEMFX:Paradigmshiftfromcarrytovol(Page23)nVulnerabilitytoChinasupplyshocks(Page34)nArgentina-Anarrowpathto"sustainability"(Page42)RegionalEconomics(Page43)nAsiaEconomics(Page43)nCEEMEAEconomics(Page7

5、0)nLatAmEconomics(Page111)MonetaryPolicyForecasts(Page138)Contacts(Page139)ExecutiveSummarynWeareloweringourEMgrowthexpectationsby1.1ppvs.ourDecemberforecasts.Asialeadsthedowngrades(1.3pp),followedbyCEEMEA(0.7pp)andLatAm(0.5pp).Thesecomparewith0.6ppand1p

6、pdownwardrevisionsfortheUSandtheEU,respectively.ThismeansthattheincreasingEM-DMgrowthdifferentialsweexpectedasoflastDecemberwillhavetowaituntilH2and2021–ourbaselinescenario.nWeseethe2018sell-off–ratherthanthe2014-15orGFC–asthemorelikelybenchmarkfortheong

7、oingcorrection.However,thisrequiresstrong,front-loadedandtargetedmonetaryandfiscalresponse.Theseareavailablemorebroadly,iftheshocksprovetemporaryaswebelieve.Ifthisisthecase,marketsshouldgainfirmerfootingoverthenextmonthortwo.Itisimportanttocloselymonitor

8、EMflows,however,astheyhavebeenpredicatedonhigherEM-DMgrowth.nEMeconomiesmustdealwiththeirownshocksandaftershocksfromtheepidemicandoilwars.InEMAsiaweexpectChina'sQ1contractiontobefollowedbyagradualrecoveryaidedbyCBsacrossth