全球宏观经济解读

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1、GlobalDataWatchRobustglobalgrowthcyclehastimetorunwithoutpressuresContentsBoEtohikenextweek,maintainingslowexitbyDMcentralbanksGlobalcapexinhighgearwithEMAsiagrowthforecastsreviseduproomtorun15US:Ifyoucan'tgetthemoneyNextweek:USandEMUcoreinflation;USpayrolls(fcst:325k)withaBAT,trya

2、SALT18UK:Canhouseholdscopewiththepinchfromhigherrates?20Apttoconfuseme,suchanunusualsightGlobalEconomicOutlookSummary4Theglobaleconomyismakingimpressiveprogresstransitioningfromanup-GlobalCentralBankWatch6turnfueledbyfadingdragstoaphaseofsynchronizedstrengthwherespend-Nowcastofglobalgr

3、owth7ing,sentiment,andfinancialconditionsgenerateapositivefeedbackloop.SelectedrecentresearchfromThisloophasbeeninplaceforanumberofmonthsnowasconsistentupward9J.P.MorganEconomicsrevisionstoouroutlookareaccompaniedbyrisingequityprices,narrowingTheJ.P.MorganView:Markets10creditspreads,an

4、drisingbusinessandhouseholdconfidence(Figure1).Thisweek,stronger-than-anticipateddatafromtheUS,UK,Taiwan,andKorealedDataWatchesUnitedStates22ustoreviseourestimatesforGDPgrowthlastquarter.Theresultisyetanoth-Euroarea30erupwardrevisiontoglobalGDP,whichnowlookstohavepostedarobustJapan363.

5、4%annualizedgainlastquarter.Intheevent,globalGDPwillhavejumpedCanada403.4%overtheentireyearthrough3Q17,nearlyafull%-pointabovepotential.Mexico42Brazil44ThekeyquestionnowiswhethertheyearofstronggrowthandupsidesurprisesisArgentina46Ecuador48settodownshiftorwhetherthereismorefuelleftinthi

6、scyclicalupswing.OurUnitedKingdom50bottom-upforecastprojectstodownshifttoa2.9%pacethisquarter,butthedataEmergingEurope52flowsuggeststheglobaleconomyislikelytocontinueitsrecentrun.EvenasanSouthAfrica&SSA55expecteddecelerationinglobalconsumergoodsspendingtakeshold,globalEMEAEMfocus58good

7、sdemandgrowthisholdingarobustpaceasourglobalcapexproxy(ex.AustraliaandNewZealand59China)surgedatneara10%annualizedpaceinrecentmonths.And,momentumChina,HongKong,andTaiwan61Korea65looksstrongasweturntowardyear-end,basedonamuchstronger-than-expectedASEAN67USdurablesreportforSeptemberand