全球宏观经济深度报告

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1、GlobalEconomicsGettingthebalancerightTacklingbothlowinflationandrisingfinancialstabilityrisks……willdemandadelicatebalancingactbycentralbanks……andamorenuancedapproachtoinflationtargetingiftheglobalexpansionistobesustainedECONOMICS●GLOBALQ42017ExecutiveSummaryIti

2、sbecomingafamiliarrefrain.Anotherquarter,anothersetofupwardrevisionstoourglobalMiFIDII–Researchgrowthforecasts,anotherdownwardrevisiontoourglobalinflationforecastsandevenmoreIsyouraccessagreed?financialmarketoptimism.Butfordevelopedworldcentralbanks,thetaskisgettin

3、geverCONTACTustodayharder.Persistentundershootingofinflationtargetsandstillhighdebtlevelscallforcontinuedloosemonetaryconditions.ButsignsoffinancialmarketexcessmaywarranthigherpolicyratesAdelicatebalanceifcentralbanksarenotgoingtofaceevenbiggerthreatstopricestabili

4、tyoverthelongerterm.Adelicatebalanceneedstobestruck.AlltogethernowOnthegrowthfront,thesynchronisedglobalrecoverycontinues.GrowthcontinuedtosurpriseontheSynchronisedgrowthandupsideinthelikesofChina,JapanandtheeurozoneinQ2,consensusforecastsformostregionsoffinancialm

5、arketexuberancetheworldarestillrisingandthelatestPMIspaintapictureofrenewedacceleration.Themajorpuzzlesofdismalproductivitygrowthandpersistentlyweakwagegrowth,despitehistoricallylowunemployment,continue.Butwithglobalfinancialconditionsstillloose,financialmarketsare

6、buoyant,particularlyinEMwherethelureofhigherreturnscontinuestosucklargecapitalinflowsintoFX,equitiesandbonds–bothdomesticandforeign.Moreevidencethatinflationisremainingundesirablylow–irrespectiveofthesynchronisedglobalgrowthandassetpricegains–isfuellingexpectations

7、thattheworld’smajorcentralbankswillkeeperringonthesideofcaution.PolicychallengesForcentralbankswhichhavespentmuchofthepost-crisisperiodtryingtoavertdeflation,synchronisedgrowthprovideswelcomerelief.Butinmanywaysthechallengesareabouttogetbigger.Thereisstillhugeuncer

8、taintyabouttheappropriatepolicysettingtodeliverandmaintainstableinflation.Theotherincreasinglypressingchallengeforcentralbanksisthatthebalanceofr