2017下半年亚洲经济展望

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1、Completed30Jun201711:57AMHKTDisseminated30Jun201712:26PMHKTEconomicResearchJune30,2017ACSinBengOngsinbeng.ong@jpmorgan.comEMAsia2H17outlook:BacktoJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,SingaporeBranchACJonathanCavenaghthemeanjonathan.cavenagh@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,SingaporeBran

2、chACSajjidChinoy1H17growthinEMAsiasurprisedtotheupside,drivenbytechsajjid.chinoy@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,MumbaiBranchandcommodity-relatedsectorsACMarvinChenSofterChinaandG-3capex,shouldseegrowthnormalizein2H17marvin.m.chen@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,Hong

3、KongACTechlaunchesandsemiconductordemandshouldbenefitNorthYingGuAsianeconomiesmorethanothersying.k.gu@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedACStabilizedcapitaloutflowsinChina,reducedvolatilityopenspolicyToshiJaintoshi.jain@jpmorgan.comspaceforPBOCtorefocusond

4、omesticissuesJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,MumbaiBranchACDespiterecentcyclicallift,coreinflationhasbeenonadowntrend,CarolLiaocarol.w.liao@jpmorgan.comsuggestinglimiteddomesticpricingpowerJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongACGlobalfinancialconditionsshouldremainsupportiveofEMAsia–Jiwo

5、nLimjiwon.c.lim@jpmorgan.combalanceofpaymentsrevisedup,premisedonrelativelywelltele-JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,SeoulBranchgraphedG3centralbankreactionfunctionsACArthurLukarthur.luk@jpmorgan.comWatchingChina’sfinancialplumbingandG3capexJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedACG

6、raceNggrace.h.ng@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongACSeokGilParkseok.g.park@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,SeoulBranchACRaisahRasidraisah.rasid@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,SingaporeBranchACBenShatilbenjamin.shatil@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,Singap

7、oreBranchACVasanShridharanvasan.shridharan@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,SingaporeBranchACHaibinZhuhaibin.zhu@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongContentsEMAsiaoutlook:Backtothemean2Toptradesin2H177China9HongKong13India15Indonesia19Korea21Malaysia24Philippines26S

8、ingapore28SriLanka30Taiwan32Thailand34Vietnam36RegionalEconomicOutlook38JPM