j.p. 摩根-亚洲2018年展望：希望生产力继续提升-亚洲-宏观经济

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1、Completed07Dec201711:04AMHKTDisseminated07Dec201711:05AMHKTEconomicResearchDecember7,2017SpecialReportACSinBengOngEMAsia2018outlook:HopingJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,SingaporeBranchACJonathanCavenaghforcontinuedproductivityliftJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,Singapore

2、BranchACMarvinChenTheglobalbattlebetweenproductivitygrowthandcapacitycon-JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongstraintswillhavespilloversandiskeyforEMAsiaACSajjidChinoyJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,MumbaiIfproductivitygainsaremaintained,thiswouldkeeptherecentBranche

3、nvironmentofsolidcapexandrestrainedunderlyingpricepres-YingGuACsuresbroadlyintactJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedHowever,productivityisunlikelytoliftmaterially.Hence,ToshiJainACgrowthshouldeasein2H18afterasolid1H18,asDMcapexebbsJPMorganChaseBank

4、,N.A.,MumbaiBranchwhileChinarefocusesonestablishingdomesticbalanceandsus-ACCarolWeiLiaotainablegrowthJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongACUStaxreform—ifitliftscapex—couldbeapositive,butweareJiwonLimJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,SeoulBranchmindfulofthewakefromanHIA

5、2.0(HomelandInvestmentAct),ACwhichcouldpotentiallyreduceUS$liquidityinEMAsiaArthurLukJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedChina’srebalancingwillrequiredeftpolicyhandling,strikingaACGraceNgfinebalancebetweencalibratingtheimpactofmonetaryandfis-JPMorga

6、nChaseBank,N.A.,HongKongcaltighteningongrowthandmanagingcapitaloutflowsACSeokGilParkJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,SeoulBranchEvenasEMAsia’sgrowthdifferentialwithDMnarrowsinACRaisahRasid2H18,externalfinancialconditionsarelikelytoturnlessac-JPMorganChaseBank,N.A

7、.,SingaporecommodativeBranchACBenjaminShatilThecombinationofnarrowinggrowthdifferentialsandamodestJPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,SingaporetighteningexternalfinancialconditionssuggestsmorevolatileBranchACcapitalinflows,especiallyin2H18VasanShridharanJPMorganChas

8、eBank,N.A.,SingaporeOilforecasttoremainaroundUS$58/bblin2018;anymaterialBranchACsupply-drivenupsidecouldposeriskstoEMAsia’sgrowthHaibinZhuJ.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Despitetheriseinheadlineinflation,coreinflationha