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1、GLOBALMacq-roinsightsFinancialrepressionfordecadesThesimplestdefinitionoffinancialrepressionispolicy-inducednominalinterestratesouttheyieldcurvebeneathnominalGDPgrowth,i.e.pushingthereturnstosaversnegative.It’safiscalpolicychoice:animplicittaxonsavings,
2、keepingfundingcostslow,ratherthanincreasingregulartaxesorcuttingentitlements.TheUSexperiencesince1953.ThereturnoffinancialrepressionWhythisissuematterstoinvestorsPeriodaverage-US10yearbondyieldasshareoftrendUSnominalGDPgrowth1)Wedisagreethatlowbondyield
3、sare10%5%signallingaglobalslump.Rather,we5%believetheyreflectaconsciouspolicy0%choicetominimisepublicdebtfunding-5%coststhatbeganinJapanandis-10%spreadingtoEurope-15%Periodsoffinancialrepressionhave10yearsovereignyields2)WebelievetheBOJandECBhavelittle-
4、20%belowtrend(5yearaverage)innominalGDPgrowthroomtowithdrawtheirmonetarypolicy-25%-26%largesse-30%-27%-35%3)Evenso,budgetrealities,below,willleave-40%governmentinvestmentexpenditureunder1953-79(Fin'lrepression)1980-20112012-presentpressureNote:Economict
5、heoryhasnominalbondyieldsbroadlyequaltonominalGDPgrowth.Thiswas4)Alowrealandnominalinterestratethe1980-2011experience,thebluecolumnabove.Financialrepressionisthepolicydistortionenvironmentduetofinancialrepressionofmarketsasoccurredover1953-79,and,inouro
6、pinion,since2012.Pleaseseepage20fortheReinhart&SbranciahistoricaldataleadstoanongoingshortageofassetsSource:Bloomberg,MacquarieResearch,April2017withstable,securerunningyieldFinancialrepressionisthepolicydistortionofmarkets.Theregulatorycontrolsof1953-7
7、9weredismantledoverthesubsequentdecades.ThecurrentG7publicdebt/GDPratios,%periodoffinancialrepressionisbeingachievedprincipallybymonetarypolicy.20072016E2020EOnaglobalscale:Acountry’snominalbondyieldcanbesplitintoalocalGross80.9121.7120.2Net52.084.383.7
8、inflationcompensationelementandacommonglobalrealinterestrate.TheNote;Pleaseseepages22-25formoredata.2016andlatter,ingloballyintegratedcapitalmarkets,issubjecttospill-overinfluences2020estimatesIMFfromanyofthemajorcentralbanks.Web
