麦格里-中国-宏观经济-中国首席经济学家首次海外路演

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1、CHINAChinamacroLatestPublicationsFirstoverseasroadshowforChiefDecdata:Thebeginningofdeleveragingtherealeconomy,19Jan2018EconomistofChinaFivesurprisesin2017andthreequestionsfor2018,4Jan2018LiuHe,whowillbeChina’stopeconomicpolicymakeroverthenextfiveyear

2、s,gavehisfirstpublicspeechoverseasonWednesdayatDavos.TakeawaysfromtheCEWC:Curbingriskstopspriorities,21Dec2017WhoisLiuHe?:MrLiuHehasbeenviewedasPresidentXi’stopeconomicadvisorsince2013,whenXiintroducedhimas“veryimportanttome.”HeisalsoFeedbackfromrecen

3、tmarketing:Sentimentturningevenbetter,5Dec2017seenasthedesignerofthesupply-sidereformsthatwereintroducedinDecember2015andhavehadasignificantimpactonthecommodityspace.Thatsaid,overthepastfiveyearsLiuhaslargelystayedbehindthescenes.Thisisnolongerso.LastO

4、ctoberhewaspromotedtothe25-memberPolitburo,theparty’stopdecision-makingbody.ThisMarch,hewilllikelybecomeoneofthevicepremiersduringthePeople’sCongress.Hewillalsobeasuper-regulator,becausehewillheadtheFinancialStabilityandDevelopmentCommittee,whichwascre

5、atedlastNovembertocoordinateallfinancialregulators.Thesignalingeffectofthespeech:Wednesday’sspeechbyLiuinDavosmarkshisdebutinfrontoftheworld.ThisisevenmoremeaningfulaslastyearitwasPresidentXiwhomadetheDavosspeech.Assuch,webelievethisismeanttobeaclears

6、ignalthatLiuwillbethespokespersonforChina’seconomicpolicyoverthenextfiveyears,andthemarketshouldhearmanymorespeechesandinterviewsfromhiminthefuture.FortheDavosspeechitself,wehavefivetakeaways.1.Globalization:ThemostimportantthingforLiuatDavos,webelieve

7、,istoshowChina’ssupportforglobalization,justasPresidentXididlastyear.Atthebeginningofhisspeech,LiuemphasizedthatChinastoodagainstprotectionismandwouldmakeitsfinancialmarketmoreaccessibletoforeigninvestors.Recently,wefindthattheriskofatradewarbetweenChi

8、naandtheUShasbeenclearlyrising.Thus,webelieveitimportantforLiutocommunicatewellwiththeUSpresidentatDavos,andthismightbebehindtherecentrapidappreciationoftheRMBagainsttheUS$.2.Reform:Basedonhispastwork,wefindLiutobeareform-mindedtechnocr