麦格里-中国-宏观经济-中国经济状况：后期增长稳定-20170901-state of china’s economy growth steady at the late-macquarie-cyclephase

《麦格里-中国-宏观经济-中国经济状况：后期增长稳定-20170901-state of china’s economy growth steady at the late-macquarie-cyclephase》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、CHINAStateofChina’seconomyInsideGrowthsteadyatthelate-cyclephaseMarket&SectorPerformance(MSCIChina)3Thenoteincludesourupdatedmacroviews,Augdataforecastsandamonthlymacrochartbook.Market&SectorPerformance(A-share)4WemaintaintheviewthatChina’seconomyisatth

2、elate-cycle,asActivitydatawatch5discussedinlastmonth’sStateofChina’seconomy,afterreceivingtheJulyPolicywatch6data(China’seconomyin15charts),aswellasthehigh-frequencydatainCommoditiesspace7Aug.NominalGDPgrowthbottomedin4Q15,afterwecalledtheU-shapedrecovery

3、inAug15.Thesubsequentrecoverypeakedin1Q17andhashadaPropertymarket8veryslowslowdownsincethen,thankstothepropertysectorandtheexternalLiquiditywatch9demand.Overtheprocess,expectationshavebeenmuchmorevolatilethanExchangerate10fundamentals,asshownbytherollerco

4、asterinironoreprice(Fig25inside).Fornextyear,wearemorecautiousthanconsensus,expectingChina’sGDPIndustrialindicators11growthtoslowto6.0%in2018from6.8%in2017.Chinainasnapshot12ForAug,weexpectthegrowthdatatoremainsteadyandboththeCPIandPPIinflationtoedgehigh

5、er.Beforethe19thPartyCongresswhichwillAugDataForecastsstartfrom18Oct,policymakerswilldowhateverittakestomaintainstability.DateIndicatorAug(fcst)PriorHowever,enteringSeptember,theuncertaintiesfromtheglobalsidecouldActivitiesrise,includingtheGermanyelection

6、,theUSdebtceiling,theFOMCmeeting,08-SepExports,%yoy6.07.2theECBmeetingaswellastheever-lingeringgeopoliticalriskfromNorth08-SepImports,%yoy9.011.0Korea.Assuch,themarketvolatilitycouldriseafterthesummerlull.08-SepTradebal.,US$bn45.146.7Limitednear-termrisk

7、sfromChina…Overall,themacrobackdropfor14-SepIndustrialprod.%yoy,6.56.4Chinaremainssupportivenear-term.Unsurprisingly,earningsdatafor1H17looksgreat,asthisperiodcoincideswiththepeakofthisroundofrecovery.14-SepFAI,ytd%yoy8.18.3Bankslookgoodfornow,astheirearn

8、ingsgrowth,whichbottomedin4Q16,14-SepRetailSales,%yoy10.310.4lagsoneyearbehindtherecovery.Moreover,improvedcorporateearningsInflationandcashflowslowertheconcernsonassetqualityandbaddebt.Allthese09-SepCPI,%yoy1.71.4m