a brief history of china’s economy中国经济的发展简史

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1、BUS487-POLITICSANDECONOMICSANDDEVELOPMENTProfessorMarvinZonisCourtneyBickertIsabelleBonneauPrashantGandhiAnthonyHaroSastryPenumartyAPRIL200026ACKNOWLEDGEMENTWewouldliketothankoursponsors,whomadeourtriptoChinapossible:CNADEUTSCHEBANKDIAMONDTECHNOLOGYPARTNERSPFIZER26TABLEOFCONTENTSI.INTRODUCTION1Ob

2、jectivesandapproach1TripOverview1Summaryoffindings1II.ABRIEFHISTORYOFECONOMICREFORMINCHINA2III.ANALYSISOFFIRSTTIERISSUES3Politicalstability3ReformofState-OwnedEnterprises5BankingReform6DevelopmentoftheWest9WTO11IV.ANALYSISOFSECOND-TIERISSUESForeignDirectInvestment11DomesticPrivatesectorgrowth12Co

3、rruption13V.THEFUTUREOFHIGHTECHNOLOGYINCHINA14VI.OVERALLCONCLUSIONS15EXHIBITA:ITINERARYEXHIBITB:CHINACONTACTLISTEXHIBITC:YEAR-TO-YEARCHANGEINCHINA’SGDPEXHIBITD:PROFITABILITYOFSTATE-OWNEDENTERPRISESEXHIBITE:ESTIMATEOFTHEBANKRESTRUCTURINGCOSTS(*)EXHIBITF1:AGGREGATEBALANCESHEETOFTHESTATE-OWNEDBANKSA

4、SOFJUNE1998EXHIBITF2:AGGREGATEBALANCESHEETOFTHESTATE-OWNEDBANKSASOFJUNE1998EXHIBITG:TRENDSINFDIINCHINAEXHIBITH:GEOGRAPHICCONCENTRATIONOFFDIINCHINAEXHIBITI:BIBLIOGRAPHY2626I.INTRODUCTIONObjectivesandApproachThepurposeofthisstudywastoascertainboththeshort-term(12-18months)andlonger-termgrowth(3-5ye

5、ars)outlookforChina,andtoidentifysomekeychallengesthatlieahead.ThereportbeginswithabriefhistoryofeconomicreforminChinainordertoprovideacontextforcurrentandfutureeconomictrends.Wethendiveintowhatwehavecharacterizedasfirst-tierandsecond-tierissuesaffectingChina’sfuturegrowth.Thefirst-tierissuesincl

6、udepoliticalstability,reformofState-OwnedEnterprises(SOEs),bankingreform,developmentofthewest,andtheeffectofChina’sentryintotheWTO.Inaddition,foreigndirectinvestment,privatesectorgrowth,andcorruptionwillalsoimpactChina’sshort-termgrowthalthoughtoalesserdegree.Therefore,wehavecategorizedtheseassec

7、ond-tierissues.Finally,givenalltherecenthypeandpublicity,ourreportalsoaddressesthefutureimpactofthehigh-technologyindustryinChina.Fromanexpenditureapproach,anynation’sGDPcanbeexpressedasbeingthesumofconsumptionexpendit