China’s Economy in the Post-Crisis W

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1、China’sEconomyinthePost-CrisisWorldCarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeaceWashingtonDC,17March,2010PieterBottelierMainpointsChina’sstimulusprogramishugeandhasbeenveryeffective.SinceMarch2009output-,employment-andconfidenceindicatorshavecontinuouslyimproved.Butp

2、roblemshavearisen:inflation,propertybubbles,housingaffordability,tradetensions.Thegovernmentrecentlyembarkedonacautiousexitstrategyfromcredit-drivenstimulusprogram.BarringmajorpolicymistakesandassumingnoseconddipinUS,EU,near-termgrowthprospectsaregood.2Mainobj

3、ectivesofstimulusprogramQuicklyreviveemploymentandstimulatedomesticdemand(tocompensateforfallingexports)through:-massiveconsumerloan-andsubsidyprograms-infrastructureinvestment,especiallyinless-developedprovinces-revivalofurbanrealestatemarketsReduceChina’sdep

4、endenceonconsumermarketsintheWestby:-promotingSouth-Southtradeandinvestment-tighteningeconomicrelationsbetweentheMainland,Taiwan&HK-promotinginternationalizationoftheRMB3QuarterlyGDPgrowthy/y&q/q4WhatexplainsthesuccessofChina’sstimulusprogramsofar?Theprogramwa

5、swelldesigned,initiatedonly6weeksafterLehman’scollapseandgenerouslyfunded,especiallywithbankcredit.ChinawasnotoverleveragedliketheU.S.Stimulusmoneyimmediatelytranslatedintoincrementalaggregatedemand.Governmentsatalllevelshadrelevantexperience,andthecountry’sfi

6、scalpositionwasstrong.Centralandlocalgovernmentinterestswerefullyaligned.After10yearsofintensivereform,China’scommercialbankswereingoodconditionandhadampleliquidity.5China’sstimulus-drivengrowthpatternisobviouslynotsustainableM2andcreditexpansionin2009over30%!

7、Investmentaccountedfor8pptsoutof8.7%GDPgrowthin2009.Domesticdemandin2009grew12.3%!(i.e.8.7%plus3.6%negativecontributionofnet-exports).Note:unsustainabilityisinthenatureofstimulusprograms.6Thestimulusprogramwasmainlydebt-financed7Theallocationofstimulusfundsisn

8、otyetknown,butaroughguessis:(source:Bottelier)Infrastructure:50%Low-costhousingandotherrealestate:20%Corporateinvestmentandworkingcapital:9%Consumerloansand-subsidies:10%Additional