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1、December3,2008China’sEconomy,inNeedofJumpStart,WaitsforCitizens’FiststoLoosenByANDREWJACOBSBEIJING—Hedoesnotknowityet,butDangFuhasbeentappedtosavetheChineseeconomy.Aruddy-facedmilletfarmerfromnortheastChina,Mr.Dang,56,hasmanagedtosavetwo-thirdsofhisfamily’s$2,200annualincome
2、inrecentyears.Hegrowsmuchofhisownfood,wearsawintercoatuntilitisreadyfortheragheapandbuysnicetiesonlywhenhiswife’snaggingbecomesintolerable.Lastyear’sindulgence,anew25-inchtelevision,stillmakeshimwince.“Itwaspainfultospendsomuchmoney,”hesaid,strollingthroughtheaislesofasuperm
3、arketlastweekwithhisprodigalsister-in-law(shesavesjusthalfofhersalary).Butsuchtenaciousthrift,onceanadmirablequalityhere,hasbecomealiabilityasthenation’sexport-driveneconomyslows,aprospectthathasstokedthegovernment’sfearofunemploymentandsocialinstability,andthatcouldthreaten
4、theCommunistParty’sholdonpower.InrecentweeksChina’sonceunstoppableeconomyhasslowedsharply.Exportgrowth,oneofthemaincontributorstoChina’sexpansionoverthepastdecade,hasrecededandseemslikelytoreduceoverallgrowthnextyear,accordingtotheWorldBank.Thestockmarketisinthedoldrumsandpr
5、opertyvaluesinmanycitiesareoff30to40percent.China’sannualizedgrowthrate,whichstoodat12percentduringtheOlympics,hasalreadyslidto9percent,anadmirablenumberbyAmericanstandardsbutominouslyclosetothe8percentfigurethatChineseeconomistssayisrequiredtoprovidejobstothe20millionpeople
6、whoentertheworkforceeveryyear.OnMonday,J.P.Morgancutitsfourth-quartergrowthforecastforChinato7.7percent,andotheranalystspredictthatnumbercouldhit5percentnextyear.Governmentanalystsarelookingtoconsumers,especiallythecountry’shundredsofmillionsofhigh-savingpeasants,topickupmuc
7、hoftheslack.“Ifwecanboostpeople’sconfidenceandtheyspendmoremoney,itwillnotonlybebeneficialtoChinabutitwillhelpstabilizetheworld’seconomy,”ZhuGuangyao,theassistantfinanceminister,saidlastweek.Butgettingpeopletospendmore,especiallyinthefaceofaneconomicslowdown,maybeatallorder.
8、Consumerspendingmakesup35percentofChina’sG.D.P.,andthatnumberhasbeendroppin