实验六 季节因素分析.doc

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1、实验六季节因素分析091230126堀锦涛.实验目的及要求（一）目的1）掌握利用EXCEL的命令进行四项移动平均法运算2）掌握利用EXCEL的命令进行二项移动平均法运算3）学会剔除长期趋势4）学会消除不规则变动的影响，求季节比率5）掌握利用EXCEL的命令计算消除季节变动前后的趋势值（―）内容及要求利用乘法模型确定季节变动趋势因子.实验内容1997101998121999162000184年合计56同季平均数14季节比率（％）79.15194346二151820247719.25108.8339223172024268721.75122

2、.9681979四111418206315.7589.0459364合计5364788828370.75100（一）四项移动平均法测长期趋势，得出如下表格：年份季节销售虽（y）：四项平均移动二项平均移动（TC）199711021531713.2513.541113.7514.125199811214.514.87521815.2515.625342014161716.517.25199911617.51822018.51932419.519.754182020.520001182121.2522421.521.7532622420(二)

3、剔除长期趋势，得出如下表格：年份季节销售量(y)四项平均移动二项平均移动(TC)SR(%)=y/TC199711021531713.2513.5125.925925941113.7514.12577.87610619199811214.514.87580.6722689121815.2515.625115.23201616.5121.21212124141717.2581.15942029199911617.51888.8888888922018.519105.263157932419.519.75121.51898734182020.

4、587.8048780520001182121.2584.7058823522421.521.75110.344827632622420(%1)消除不规则变动的影响，求出季节比率，如下表所199780.67226891115.2三四全年合计125.925925977.87610619203.8020321121.212121281.15942029398.24381041999四年合计同季平均数季节比率％88.88888889105.2631579121.518987387.80487805403.475912284.705882351

5、10.3448276195.0507099254.2670401330.8079855368.6570345246.84040451200.57246584.75568005110.2693285122.885678282.28013484100.047705484.7152663110.2167492122.82708382.2409015400(%1)计算消除季节变动后销售量:年份季节销售量(y)四项平均移动二项平均移动(TC)5/TC季节比率SR(%)=y/TCs(%)消除季节变动199711084.715266311.80424

6、7215110.216749213.60954631713.2513.5125.9259259122.82708313.84059541113.7514.12577.8761061982.240901513.375339199811214.514.87580.6722689184.715266314.16509721815.2515.625115.2110.216749216.3314563201616.5121.2121212122.82708316.2830534141717.2581.1594202982.240901517.02

7、3159199911617.51888.8888888984.715266318.88679622018.519105.2631579110.216749218.14606232419.519.75121.5189873122.82708319.5396644182020.587.8048780582.240901521.88691920001182121.2584.7058823584.715266321.24764622421.521.75110.3448276110.216749221.77527432622122.8270832

8、1.16796942082.240901524.318799(%1)根据表格中的数据进行回归统计:SUMMARYOUTPUT回归统计MultipleR0.977354RSquare0.955220841Ad