实验六季节因素分析

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1、实验六季节因素分析091230126瑪锦涛一、实验冃的及要求（―）目的1）掌握利用EXCEL的命令进行四项移动平均法运算2）掌握利用EXCEL的命令进行二项移动平均法运算3）学会剔除长期趋势4）学会消除不规则变动的影响，求季节比率5）掌握利用EXCEL的命令计算消除季节变动前后的趋势值（二）内容及要求利用乘法模型确定季节变动趋势因子.实验内容1997101998121999162000184年合计56同季平均数14季节比率（％）79.15194346二151820247719.25108.8339223三172024268721.75122.9681979四111418206315.7

2、589.0459364合计5364788828370.75100（一）四项移动平均法测长期趋势，得出如下表格：年份季节销售量（y）：四项平均移动二项平均移动（TC）199711021531713.2513.541113.7514.125199811214.514.87521815.2515.625342014161716.517.25199911617.51822018.51932419.519.754182020.520001182121.2522421.521.7532622420(二)剔除长期趋势，得出如下表格:年份季节销售量(y)四项平均移动二项平均移动(TC)SR(%)=y/

3、TC199711021531713.2513.5125.925925941113.7514.12577.87610619199811214.514.87580.6722689121815.2515.625115.23201616.5121.21212124141717.2581.15942029199911617.51888.8888888922018.519105.263157932419.519.75121.51898734182020.587.8048780520001182121.2584.7058823522421.521.75110.344827632622420(三)消除

4、不规则变动的影响，求岀季节比率，如下表所三四全年合计1997199880.67226891115.2125.925925977.87610619203.8020321121.212121281.15942029398.2438104199988.88888889105.2631579121.518987387.80487805403.4759122195.0507099四年合计200084.70588235110.3448276254.2670401330.8079855368.6570345246.84040451200.572465同季平均84.75568005110.269328

5、5122.885678282.28013484100.0477054数季节比84.7152663110.2167492122.82708382.2409015400率％（四）计算消除季节变动后销售量:年份季节销售量（y）四项平均移动二项平均移动（TC）/Tr季节比率SRgTC$（%）消除季节变动199711084.715266311.804247215110.216749213.60954631713.2513.5125.9259259122.82708313.84059541113.7514.12577.8761061982.240901513.375339199811214.514

6、.87580.6722689184.715266314.16509721815.2515.625115.2110.216749216.3314563201616.5121.2121212122.82708316.2830534141717.2581.1594202982.240901517.023159199911617.51888.8888888984.715266318.88679622018.519105.2631579110.216749218.14606232419.519.75121.5189873122.82708319.5396644182020.587.8048780

7、582.240901521.88691920001182121.2584.7058823584.715266321.24764622421.521.75110.3448276110.216749221.77527432622122.82708321.16796942082.240901524.318799（五）根据表格中的数据进行回归统计:SUMMARYOUTPUT回归统计MultipleR0.977354RSquare0.955220841A