实验六 季节因素分析

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1、实验六季节因素分析091230126琚锦涛一、实验目的及要求(一)目的1)掌握利用EXCEL的命令进行四项移动平均法运算2)掌握利用EXCEL的命令进行二项移动平均法运算3)学会剔除长期趋势4)学会消除不规则变动的影响，求季节比率5)掌握利用EXCEL的命令计算消除季节变动前后的趋势值(二)内容及要求利用乘法模型确定季节变动趋势因子二、实验内容19971998199920004年合计同季平均数季节比率（%）一10121618561479.15194346二151820247719.25108.8339223三172024268721.75122.9

2、681979四111418206315.7589.0459364合计5364788828370.75100(一)四项移动平均法测长期趋势，得出如下表格：年份季节销售量（y)四项平均移动二项平均移动(TC)199711021531713.2513.541113.7514.125199811214.514.87521815.2515.6253201616.54141717.25199911617.51822018.51932419.519.754182020.520001182121.2522421.521.7532622420(一)剔除长期趋势，得出

3、如下表格：年份季节销售量（y)四项平均移动二项平均移动(TC)SR(%)=y/TC199711021531713.2513.5125.925925941113.7514.12577.87610619199811214.514.87580.6722689121815.2515.625115.23201616.5121.21212124141717.2581.15942029199911617.51888.8888888922018.519105.263157932419.519.75121.51898734182020.587.80487805200

4、01182121.2584.7058823522421.521.75110.344827632622420(二)消除不规则变动的影响，求出季节比率，如下表所示：一二三四全年合计1997125.925925977.87610619203.8020321199880.67226891115.2121.212121281.15942029398.2438104199988.88888889105.2631579121.518987387.80487805403.4759122200084.70588235110.3448276195.0507099四年合

5、计254.2670401330.8079855368.6570345246.84040451200.572465同季平均数84.75568005110.2693285122.885678282.28013484100.0477054季节比率%84.7152663110.2167492122.82708382.2409015400(一)计算消除季节变动后销售量：年份季节销售量（y)四项平均移动二项平均移动(TC)SR(%)=y/TC季节比率S(%)消除季节变动后销售量（y/S)199711084.715266311.80424785215110.21

6、6749213.6095467531713.2513.5125.9259259122.82708313.8405957241113.7514.12577.8761061982.240901513.37533976199811214.514.87580.6722689184.715266314.1650974221815.2515.625115.2110.216749216.33145613201616.5121.2121212122.82708316.283053794141717.2581.1594202982.240901517.0231597

7、199911617.51888.8888888984.715266318.8867965622018.519105.2631579110.216749218.1460623332419.519.75121.5189873122.82708319.539664554182020.587.8048780582.240901521.8869196120001182121.2584.7058823584.715266321.2476461322421.521.75110.3448276110.216749221.7752747932622122.82708

8、321.1679699342082.240901524.31879957(二)根据表格中的数据进行回归统计：SUMMARY