国外社会心理学3课件3.ppt

《国外社会心理学3课件3.ppt》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在教育资源-天天文库。

1、Heuristics-ShortcutsInsteadofNormativeDecisionMakingRepresentativenessHeuristic-Wemakejudgmentsofprobabilitybasedonsimilarityanddonotconsiderotherrulesthatweshould.Let’slookattheevidence-firstweignorebase-rates.ThenormativerulescomefromBayesTheoremwhichsoundsprettyco

2、nfusingbutbasicallysuggeststhatwhenwemakeadecisionweshouldtakepriorprobabilitiesintoaccountunlessweareabsolutelycertainaboutthedecision.WhatisTomW.’sMajor?TomW.isofhighintelligence,althoughlackingintruecreativity.Hehasaneedfororderandclarity,andforneatandtidysystemsin

3、whicheverydetailfindsitsappropriateplace.Hiswritingisratherdullandmechanical,occasionallyenlivenedbysomewhatcornypunsandflashesofimaginationofthesci-fitype.Hehasastrongdriveforcompetence.Heseemstohavelittlefeelandlittlesympathyforotherpeopleanddoesnotenjoyinteractingw

4、ithothers.Self-centered,henonethelesshasadeepmoralsense.WhatisTomW.’sMajor?Kahneman&Tverskyasked3questionsWhatpercentageofpeopleinthedifferentmajors?HowsimilarisTomW.toeachmajor?HowlikelyisTomW.eachmajor?TheyfoundestimatesofhowlikelyTomW.isaparticularmajorarestronglyi

5、nfluencedbyhowsimilarheistotheirstereotypeaboutthemajor,butunrelatedtothepercentageofpeopleinthedifferentmajors.ThisviolatesBayesTheoremunlesstheyarecertainfromthedescriptionwhatmajorTomW.iswhichtheyweren’t.IsJackaLawyeroranEngineer?Jackisa45year-oldman.Heismarriedand

6、hasfourchildren.Heisgenerallyconservative,careful,andambitious.Heshowsnointerestinpoliticalandsocialissuesandspendsmostofhisfreetimeonhismanyhobbieswhichincludehomecarpentry,sailing,andmathematicalpuzzles.TheprobabilitythatJackisoneofthe30engineersinthesampleof100is__

7、____%.IsDickaLawyeroranEngineer?Dickisa30-year-oldman.Heismarriedwithnochildren.Amanofhighabilityandhighmotivation,hepromisestobequitesuccessfulinhisfield.Heiswelllikedbyhiscolleagues.TheprobabilitythatDickisoneofthe30engineersinthesampleof100is______%.IsJack/DickaLaw

8、yeroranEngineer?K&Tfoundthatpeople’sratingsofwhetherJackwasaLawyeroranEngineerwerevirtuallyunaffectedbythebaserateinformatio