中泰时钟资产配置月报：继续超配金融板块

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1、内容目录一．三维度看宏观基本面变化：宏观指标总体平稳偏弱.-4-二．大类资产配置：基本面利好不足，调高债券配置比例.................................-6-三．战术资产配置：看好金融风格......................................................................-9-3.1行业基本面变化...................................................................................

2、-10-3.2从情绪面刻画行业热度........................................................................-10-3.3预期差视角下的行业&板块推荐...........................................................-11-3.4大小盘风格：看好大盘风格的相对表现...............................................-12-四．本期推荐基金组合....................

3、..................................................................-12-图表目录图表1：央行货币宽松指标：净投放力度与货币利率.-4-图表2：商业银行总信用扩张力度......................................................................-4-图表3：财政支持资金来源预估.......................................................................

4、...-4-图表4：财政支出综合力度.................................................................................-4-图表5：地产+基建、进出口总额、社消零售总额:12个月滚动环比................-5-图表6：M1与M0过去12个月增量差..............................................................-5-图表7：货币周期影响通胀周期.........................

5、.................................................-6-图表8：产出缺口影响通货膨胀..........................................................................-6-图表9：原油价格与通货膨胀..............................................................................-6-图表10：股市评分权重..........................

6、............................................................-7-图表11：股市评分与wind全A走势.................................................................-7-图表12：债市评分权重......................................................................................-7-图表13：债市评分与国债收益率..........

7、..............................................................-7-图表14：商品评分权重......................................................................................-8-图表15：商品评分与大宗价格指数....................................................................-8-图表16：黄金的需求属性与跟踪指标.....

8、............................................................-9-图表17：黄金评价权重........