国际贸易的能源量【外文翻译】

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1、外文翻译原文EnergyContentofWorldTradeMaterialSource:EnergyPolicyAuthor:GernotWagnerENERGYCONTENTOFWORLDTRADEGernotWagner*EnvironmentalDefenseFund257ParkAvenueSouth,NewYork,NY10023;+1-212-616-1341gwagner@post.harvard.eduThispaperconstructsacomprehensivedatasetofoilandto

2、talenergyembeddedinworldtradeofmanufacturinggoodsfor73countriesfrom1978to2000.Applyingthedatatodebatesonthedependencyonforeignenergysourcesmakesclearthatachievingcompleteenergyindependenceintheforeseeablefutureisunlikelytobefeasibleandmaynotbedesirable.Applyingit

3、tothediscussionofenvironmentalKuznetscurves(EKCs)highlightsanimportantdistinctionbetweenproductionandconsumptionofenergy.Richercountriesuserelativelylessenergyintheirindustrialproductionyetstillconsumerelativelylargeamountsofenergyindirectly.Afurtherinvestigation

4、largelyexcludesstructuralshiftsofproductioninandoutofthemanufacturingsectorasanexplanationforthedownward-slopingportionoftheEKC.Country-levelanalysesaddcaveatsbutshowtentativesupportforthecross-countryconclusions.Keywords:trade,energydependency,energyintensity,en

5、vironmentalKuznetscurve,energyKuznetscurve1.IntroductionTheUnitedStatesimportsaround10millionbarrelsofoilperday.iThisnumberiswidelyknown.Itisalsoofmuchconcerninthepolicycommunity.“Energyindependence”hasbeenbuzzwordinWashingtonsincethe1970s.TheCouncilonForeignRela

6、tions’(CFR)IndependentTaskForceReportonthe“NationalSecurityConsequencesofU.S.OilDependency”identifieditasoneofthemainmyths.Intheforeseeablefuture,theUnitedStateswilldependonimportedoil,“barringdraconianmeasures”(CFR2007)that,inanycase,wouldbeilladvised.Moreimport

7、antly,eveniftheUnitedStatesbecomes“energyindependent”inthesenseconveyedinthereportandinmuchofthepolicydiscussion,itwouldstilldependonimportedoilthroughitstradeinmanufacturinggoods.In2000,theUnitedStatesimported0.8millionbarrelsofoilperdayembeddedinimportedmanufac

8、turinggoods.Thenumberincreasesto2.4millionbarrelsofoil-equivalentenergywhenaccountingforallenergysources(comparedto13.2millionbarrelsofoilequivalentenergyimpor