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1、外文翻译原文Title:FinancialRatiosandtheProbabilisticPredictionofBankruptcyMaterialSource:http://www.jstor.org/pss/2490395Author:JamesOhlson1IntroductionThispaperpresentssomeempiricalresultsofastudypredictingcorporatefailureasevidencedbytheeventofbankruptcy.Therehavebe
2、enafairnumberofpreviousstudiesinthisfieldofresearch;themorenotablepublishedcontributionsareBeaver(1966;1968a;1968b),Altman(1968;1973)andsoon.TwounpublishedpapersbyWhiteandTurnbuli(1975a;1975b)andapaperbySantomeroandVinso(1977)areofparticularinterestastheyappeart
3、obethefirststudieswhichlogicallyandsystematicallydevelopprobabilisticestimatesoffailure.Thepresentstudyissimilartothelatterstudies,inthatthemethodologyisoneofmaximumlikelihoodestimationoftheso-calledconditionallogitmodel.Thedatasetusedinthisstudyisfromtheseventi
4、es(1970-76).Iknowofonlythreecorporatefailureresearchstudieswhichhaveexamineddatafromthisperiod.OneisalimitedstudybyAltmanandMcGough(1974])inwhichonlyfailedfirmsweredrawnfromtheperiod1970-73andonlyonetypeofclassificationerror(misclassificationoffailedfirms)wasana
5、lyzed.Moyer(1977)consideredtheperiod1965-75,butthesampleofbankruptfirmswasunusuallysmall(twenty-sevenfirms).Thethirdstudy,byAltman,Haldeman,andNarayanan(1977),which"updates"theoriginalAltman(1968)study,basicallyconsidersdatafromtheperiod1969to1975.Theirsamplewas
6、basedonfifty-threefailedfirmsandaboutthesamenumberofnonfailedfirms.Incontrast,mystudyreliesonobservationsfrom105bankruptfirmsand2,058nonbankruptfirms.Althoughtheotherthreestudiesdifferfromthepresentonesofarasmethodologyandobjectivesareconcerned,itis,nevertheless
7、,interestingandusefultocomparetheirresultswiththosepresentedinthispaper.AnotherdistinguishingfeatureofthepresentstudywhichIshouldstressisthat,contrarytoalmostallpreviousstudies,thedataforfailedfirmswerenotderivedfromMoody'sManual.Thedatawereobtainedinsteadfrom10
8、-Kfinancialstatementsasreportedatthetime.Thisprocedurehasoneimportantadvantage:thereportsindicateatwhatpointintimetheywerereleasedtothepublic,andonecanthereforecheckw
