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1、外文翻译FinancialRatiosandtheProbabilisticPredictionofBankruptcyMaterialSource：http://www.investmentanomalies.comAuthor：Jamesa.Ohlson1.IntroductionThispaperpresentssomeempiricalresultsofastudypredictingcorporatefailureasevidencedbytheeventofbankruptcy.Therehavebee
2、nafairnumberofpreviousstudiesinthisfieldofresearch;themorenotablepublishedcontributionsareBeaver[1966;1968a;1968b],Altman[1968;1973],AltmanandLorris[1976],AltmanandMcGough[1974],Altman,Haldeman,andNarayanan[1977],Deakin[1972],Libby[1975],Blum[1974],Edmister[19
3、72],Wilcox[1973],Moyer[1977],andLev[1971].TwounpublishedpapersbyWhiteandTurnbull[1975a;19756]andapaperbySantomeroandVinso[1977]areofparticularinterestastheyappeartobethefirststudieswhichlogicallyandsystematicallydevelopprobabilisticestimatesoffailure.Thepresen
4、tstudyissimilartothelatterstudies,inthatthemethodologyisoneofmaximumlikelihoodestimationoftheso-calledconditionallogitmodel.2.SomeCommentsRegardingMethodologyandDatacollectionTheeconometricmethodologyofconditionallogitanalysiswaschosentoavoidsomefairlywellknow
5、nproblemsassociatedwithMultivariateDiscriminantAnalysis(MDA,forshort).TheMDAapproachhasbeenthemostpopulartechniqueforbankruptcystudiesusingvectorsofpredictors.Amongsomeoftheproblemswiththesestudiesare:(i)Therearecertainstatisticalrequirementsimposedonthedistri
6、butionalpropertiesofthepredictors.Forexample,thevariance-covariancematricesofthepredictorsshouldbethesameforbothgroups(failedandnonfailedfirms);moreover,arequirementofnormallydistributedpredictorscertainlymilitatesagainsttheuseofdummyindependentvariables.Aviol
7、ationoftheseconditions,itcouldperhapsbeargued,isunimportant(orsimplyirrelevant)iftheonlypurposeofthemodelistodevelopadiscriminatingdevice.Althoughthismaybeavalidpoint,itisneverthelessclearthatthisperspectivelimitsthescopeoftheinvestigation.Undermanycircumstanc
8、es,itisofinteresttogothroughmoretraditionaleconometricanalysisandtestvariablesforstatisticalsignificance,etc.(ii)TheoutputoftheapplicationofanMDAmodelisascorewhichhaslittleintuitiv
