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1、外文翻译原文FinancialRatiosandtheProbabilisticPredictionofBankruptcyMaterialSource:JournalofAccountingResearchVol.18No.1Spring1980PrintedinU.S.AAuthor:JAMESA.OHLSON1.IntroductionThispaperpresentssomeempiricalresultsofastudypredictingcorporatefailureasevidencedbytheeventofbankruptcy.Therehavebeenafairn
2、umberofpreviousstudiesinthisfieldofresearch,themorenotablepublishedcontributionsareBeaver[1966;1968a;1968b],Altman[1968,1973],AltmanandLorries[1976],AltmanandMcGough[1974],Altman,Haldeman,andNarayanan[1977],Deakin[1972],Libby[1975],Blum[1974],Edmister[1972],Wilcox[1973],Moyer[1977],andLev[1971].
3、TwounpublishedpapersbyWhiteandTurnbull[1975a,1975b]andapaperbySantomeroandVinso[1977]areofparticularinterestastheyappeartobethefirststudieswhichlogicallyandsystematicallydevelopprobabilisticestimatesoffailure.Thepresentstudyissimilartothelatterstudies,inthatthemethodologyisoneofmaximumlikelihood
4、estimationoftheso-calledconditionallogitmodel.Thedatasetusedinthisstudyisfromtheseventies(1970-76).Iknowofonlythreecorporatefailureresearchstudieswhichhaveexamineddatafromthisperiod.OneisalimitedstudybyAltmanandMcGough[1974]inwhichonlyfailedfirmsweredrawnfromtheperiod1970-73andonlyonetypeofclass
5、ificationerror(misclassificationoffailedfirms)wasanalyzed.Moyer[1977]consideredtheperiod1965-75,butthesampleofbankruptfirmswasunusuallysmall(twenty-sevenfirms).Thethirdstudy,byAltman,Haldeman,andNarayanan[1977],which"updates"theoriginalAltman[1968]study,basicallyconsidersdatafromtheperiod1969to1
6、975.Theirsamplewasbasedonfifty-threefailedfirmsandaboutthesamenumberofnonfailedfirms.Incontrast,mystudyreliesonobservationsfrom105bankruptfirmsand2,058nobankruptfirms.Althoughtheotherthreestudiesdifferfromthepresentonesofarasmethodologyandobjectivesareconcerned,itis,nevertheless,interestingandus
7、efultocomparetheirresultswiththosepresentedinthispaper.However,onemightaskabasicandpossiblyembarrassingquestion:whyforecastbankruptcy?Thisisadifficultquestion,andnoanswerorjustificationisgivenhere.Itcouldperhapsbearguedthatw
