猪瘟对猪肉供应链意味着什 么

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1、ContentsWhyreadthisreport?1Factsandfigures3Investmentsummary4Industryoutlook:shortterm14Industryoutlook:longterm27Companysection41HaidGroup(002311CH)42JinyuBio-Technology(600201CH)52MuyuanFoods(002714CH)62WensFoodstuffGroup(300498CH)70Disclosureappen

2、dix81Disclaimer84FactsandfiguresRMB1trnThemarketsizeofChina’shogindustrychain35mThenumberofhogfarmerswithannualproductionvolumeoflessthan50hogsin201741.1%They-o-yfallinhoginventoriesinChina,asofSeptember2019Thecombinedmarketshareofthetop10listedhogc

3、ompanieswas7.38%in2018.Wethinkthiswillriseto30%in10yearsRMB22/kgOurforecastforthehogweightedaveragesellingpricein2020e20%Thecombinedmarketshareofthetopfourfeedproducers,implyingsignificantupside5,000Feedcompanieswithannualcapacitybelow50,000tonnesW

4、ethinkthecurrentcyclewillbeprolongedasaresultofAfricanswinefever50monthsTheaveragelengthofthelastthreehogpricecyclesinChinasince200617%Thecombinedmarketshareoftopeightlistedanimalhealthcarecompanies,implyingsignificantroomforgrowth10-15%Howmuchwethi

5、nkanimalvaccinesaleswillgrowannuallyinthenext3-5yearsInvestmentsummaryuChina’sRMB1trillionhogindustryhasbeenhithardbyAfricanswinefever–weassesstheshortandlong-termoutlookuThelargelistedhogcompanieswithstrongbio-securitysystemshaveescapedinfectionanda

6、rebenefittingfromhigherprices.ButwethinkanimalfeedandvaccinecompaniesarebestplaceduWeinitiatecoverageofHaidGroup(Buy),Jinyu(Buy),Muyuan(Hold)andWens(Hold)AfricanswinefeverandbeyondTimetoreframethethinkingonsupply,demand,pricingandsubstituteproductsI

7、nSeptemberthisyearHSBCglobalresearchpublishedathematicreportwhichdescribedAfricanswinefeverasatransformationaleventthatwillresetthetrajectoryanddevelopmentoftheglobalproteinindustry.InAfricanswinefever:Anewreality,analystsAlessiaApostolatosandCarlosL

8、aboysaiditwastimetoreframethethinkingonsupply,demand,pricingandsubstituteproducts.ThisreportassessestheimpactofAfricanswinefeveronChina,wherethediseasehashitthecountry’smassiveRMB1trillionhogindustryparticularlyhard.Accordingtothegovernment,bySeptemb