欧洲与美国汽车供应商：经济衰退对汽车供应商意味着什 么.docx

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1、ABGlobalResearch19March2020EquitiesEuropeanandUSAutoSuppliersAutomobilesEuropeincludingUKWhatarecessioncouldmeanforautosuppliersItwillgetworsebeforeitgetsbetter:Q2coulddecline>40%inEurope/NA2020willbethethirdyearofdecliningproductiongrowthwithahighlevelofvolatility.Ourestimate

2、snowreflect:(1)ChinaproductionlostinQ1willnolongerberecovered;and(2)therewillbematerialdisruptionsintheglobalsupplychain.Wenowforecastaglobalproductiondeclineofc9.6%.HeadlineriskaboutproductionshutdownsinEuropeandtheUSislikelytointensify.Q2productioncoulddecline>40%yoyandthecur

3、rentenvironmentisconstantlyevolving.WethinkmostFY20companyguidancewilllikelybelowered(mostprobablyatthetimeoftheQ1results).Wecutourearningsestimatesby20-60%andnowexpectanunderlyingEBITdeclinethisyearof15-25%yoy.Suppliers'sharepriceshavedropped>40%YTDandbuy-sideexpectationsareal

4、readywellbelowcurrentsell-sideconsensusnumbersfor2020/21.Therefore,wefavourthosecompaniesthathaverobustbalancesheetsandarepricinginthemostseveredownturns,namelyHellaandValeo.WeremaincautiousonVeoneerandSchaefflerastheypresentthehighestbalancesheetrisk.Notfullypricinginarecessio

5、nbut…Wehavebuiltinadownside/recessionscenariothatassumesaglobalproductiondeclineof18%thisyearthatwouldreplicateasimilarpeak-to-troughlevelasseeninthe2008financialcrisis.Wearealsomodelling30-50%operatingleverage(onthedecliningsales),furtherOEMpricingpressure,andworkingcapital(WC

6、)normalisation.Inthisscenario,keypotentialfinancialimpactsinclude:(1)mostsupplierswilllikelygeneratenegativeorganicsalesgrowth(-8%to-11%);(2)EBITwillprobablyreduceby35-75%;(3)theprofitabilitymarginwillmorethanhalve(butstillremainpositive);and(4)theleverageratiowillprobablyincre

7、aseby>1x(fromc1xforthesectoraverage).…whyitis(really)differentthistimeWeexpectbetterresilienceversus2008forthefollowingkeyreasons:(1)thehigherEBITmarginleveltodayasastartingpoint;(2)suppliersstartedtoadjustthecostbasetwoyearsago;(3)balancesheetsareinbettershape;and(4)government

8、scouldstartstimulatingautodemand.Weremaincautiousonthe