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1、RevolutionandEvolutioninTwentieth-CenturyMacroeconomicsMichaelWoodfordPrincetonUniversity*June1999Thetwentiethcenturyhasseenprofoundprogressineconomicthought.Thishasbeenassociated,amongotherthings,withtheprogressofeconomicstoafullyautonomousdisciplinarystatus,whichhadonlybeguntobeestab
2、lishedlateinthenineteenthcentury,andwithaverysubstantialimprovementinthetechnicalmethodsemployedinthediscipline,bothintheelaborationofeconomictheoryandinthestatisticalanalysisofeconomicdata.Overthepastcenturyeconomicshasalsocometoplayamoreimportantroleintheworldatlarge.Economicadvisors
3、havebecomemoreimportantintheformulationofgovernmentpoliciesandthepoliciesofinternationalorganizationssuchastheIMFandtheWorldBank;economictheoryhasproventobeofpracticaluseinthedesignanduseofaworldofnewfinancialinstruments;andeconomicideashavebecomeinfluentialinanumberofareasoutsidethedi
4、scipline’straditionalboundaries,includingsociology,politicalscience,andlegalstudies.Attemptingtocatalog,letaloneevaluate,alloftheimportantdevelopmentsinsoactiveafieldovertheentirecenturywouldbeataskbeyondthescopeofalectureofthislength.AsaresultIhavechoseninsteadtodiscussasingle,thoughi
5、mportant,strandintwentieth-centuryeconomicthought.Thisisthefieldofmacroeconomics,thebranchofeconomicsconcernedwithfluctuationsintheoveralllevelofbusinessactivity,withthedeterminantsofinflation,interestrates,andexchangerates,andwiththeeffectsofgovernmentpolicies—suchasfiscalpolicy,monet
6、arypolicy,andexchangeratepolicy–thatareconsideredmainlywithregardtotheireffectsupontheeconomyasawhole.Thereareseveralreasonsfortheselectionofmacroeconomicsforspecialattention,apartfromthefactthatIammoreknowledgeableaboutit.Firstofall,amongtheappliedfieldsineconomics,ithasaspecialplacei
7、nmoderneconomicscurricula.Macroeconomicsisalsothepartofeconomicsmostoftenassociatedwiththefieldbythegeneralpublic.Forexample,afewyearsago,DanielBellandIrvingKristoleditedabooktitledTheCrisisinEconomicTheory;1*PreparedfortheconferenceonFrontiersoftheMindintheTwenty-FirstCentury,Librar
