Macro-dynamics theory

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1、Macro-dynamicstheory:anewwaytounderstandstockmarketZANGLeiAbstractThereisevidencethatthepremiumofstockmarketoverbondmarketfluctuatesinarange.Basedonthisphenomenon,weprovidemacro-dynamicstheorytoexplainmajormarketmovements.Ourmodelexplains67%ofShanghaiCompositeIndexearningyiel

2、dquarterlyvariation.AndwefoundthatShanghaiCompositeIndexiscloselyrelatedtoGDPgrowthrateandbondyield,oppositetomanypeople’sbelief.I.IntroductionUnderstandingthemarketOneofthetoppurposesofeconomists,analystsandstrategistsofstockmarketistounderstandorexplainthemarket.Theywanttok

3、nowthedrivingforceoreconomicbasisofeachstaplemarketmovement.However,wealwaysseedifferentunderstandings.TaketherecentbullthathappensinChinesestockmarketforexample.ThebullbeganatJuly22nd,2014,whentheShanghaiCompositeIndexisaround2050.MarketsoaredinNovember,andtheIndexreached340

4、0severaltimesinJanuary2015(SeeGraph1.).RenZeping(2015)believesthatthebullmarketisaresultofstrong1expectationofthesuccessofXi’sreform.WhileJiangChao(2014)believesthatthisisaresultof2easymonetarypolicy.Otheropinionsalsoexist.GaoShanwen(2014)believesthatthemarketisjustreturningt

5、oitsupwardtrendthatstartedin2013:thetrendwastemporarilyreversedbythefamous3“moneyshortage”thathappenedinJune2013,andnowtheinfluencehasfinallygoneaway.Hong4Hao(2015)believesthatbullmarketonlystartswhenstocksaretoocheaprelativetobonds.Wecanhardlydeterminewhoisrightandwhoiswrong

6、.Onereasonisthateachanalysthashisownargumentandtheseargumentsaredifficulttoverify.TakeRenZeping’sargumentforexample.WecanhardlybesureifmarketparticipantstrulybelievethatXi’sreformwillbeextremelysuccessful,andevenifweare,wedonotknowifthatisthedrivingforce.Anotherreasonisthatth

7、eseexplanationsareonlyapplicabletooneparticularbull.Forothermajormarketmovements,otherexplanationswouldbeused:thereisalackofunifiedtheory.Thispaperisaimedatprovidingapossibleunifiedtheory,whichisnamedmacro-dynamicstheorybytheauthor,toexplainmajormarketmovements(withverifiable

8、evidence).ManypeopleholdthepointthatChinesestockmarketisnotrelevantt