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1、UniversityofDelawareDisasterResearchCenterPreliminaryPaper#339ACRITICALREVIEWOFEMERGENCYEVACUATIONSIMULATIONMODELSGabrielSantosBenignoE.Aguirre2004φACriticalReviewofEmergencyEvacuationSimulationModelsGabrielSantosBenignoE.AguirreDisasterResearchCenterUniv
2、ersityofDelawareNewark,Delaware19716φProceedingofConference“BuildingOccupantMovementDuringFireEmergencies,”June10-11,2004.Gaithersburg,Maryland:NationalInstituteofStandardsandTechnology,(forthcoming).1ACriticalReviewofEmergencyEvacuationSimulationModelsGa
3、brielSantosBenignoE.AguirreDisasterResearchCenterUniversityofDelawareNewark,Delaware19716Thepaperpresentsacriticalreviewofselectedsimulationmodelsincluding(1)flowbased,(2)cellularautomata,(3)agent-based,and(4)activity-basedmodels,aswellasofthreesimulation
4、modelsthatincorporatesocialscientificprocesses--FIRESCAP,EXODUS,andtheMulti-AgentSimulationforCrisisManagement.Itconcludesbypointingoutthesofarignoredinsightsthatcouldbederivedfromthefieldsofsocialpsychologyandsocialorganization.Anumberofpredictionsregard
5、ingtheeffectsofsocialorganizationalvariablesonthetimingandmovementofevacuatinggroupsarepresented.2ACriticalReviewofEmergencyEvacuationSimulationModelsWeofferacriticalreviewofselectedsimulationmodelsofevacuationbehaviorbasedonpublisheddescriptionsoftheirch
6、aracteristicsratherthanonempiricaltestsoftheirclaims(comparetoKuligowski,2003).Asecondsectionofthepaperidentifiessocialsciencesapproachesthatcouldimprovepresentdaysimulationmodels.Ourargumentisthatthesocialsciencescouldprovideimportantnewdirectionstosimul
7、ationmodelsofemergencyevacuations;totheextentthatsimulationmodelsareattemptingtoincorporateactualhumansocialbehavior,adialogueamongengineers,computerscientists,firescientists,andsocialscientistswouldrendersuchmodelsmoreaccurateandrealistic.Sofar,aswewills
8、how,theabsenceofthisdialoguehasimpactedmanyofthesemodels.Itisusefultothinkofevacuationbehaviorduringemergencies,commonlyreferredtoasemergencyegress,ashavingthreedistinctanalyticaldimensions:thephysicallocationofthee
