Modeling emergency evacuation for major hazard

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1、ARTICLEINPRESSReliabilityEngineeringandSystemSafety92(2007)1388–1402www.elsevier.com/locate/ressModelingemergencyevacuationformajorhazardindustrialsitesab,ParaskeviS.Georgiadou,IoannisA.Papazoglou,ccChrisT.Kiranoudis,NikolaosC.MarkatosaHellenicInstitu

2、teforOccupationalHealthandSafety,Liossion143andTheirsiou6,Athens10445,GreecebSystemsReliabilityandIndustrialSafetyLaboratory,NationalCenterofScientificResearch‘‘Demokritos’’,AgiaParaskevi,Athens15310,GreececSchoolofChemicalEngineering,NationalTechnicalU

3、niversityofAthens,ZografouCampus,Athens15780,GreeceReceived12July2006;receivedinrevisedform5September2006;accepted5September2006Availableonline28November2006AbstractAmodelprovidingthetemporalandspatialdistributionofthepopulationunderevacuationaroundama

4、jorhazardfacilityisdeveloped.AdiscretestatestochasticMarkovprocesssimulatesthemovementoftheevacuees.Theareaaroundthehazardousfacilityisdividedintonodesconnectedamongthemselveswithlinksrepresentingtheroadsystemofthearea.Transitionfromnode-to-nodeissimul

5、atedasarandomprocesswheretheprobabilityoftransitiondependsonthedynamicallychangedstatesofthedestinationandoriginnodesandonthelinkbetweenthem.SolutionoftheMarkovprocessprovidestheexpecteddistributionoftheevacueesinthenodesoftheareaasafunctionoftime.AMon

6、teCarlosolutionofthemodelprovidesinadditionasampleofactualtrajectoriesoftheevacuees.Thisinformationcoupledwithanaccidentanalysiswhichprovidesthespatialandtemporaldistributionoftheextremephenomenonfollowinganaccident,determinesasampleoftheactualdosesrec

7、eivedbytheevacuees.Boththeaveragedoseandtheactualdistributionofdosesarethenusedasmeasuresinevaluatingalternativeemergencyresponsestrategies.Itisshownthatinsomecasestheestimationofthehealthconsequencesbytheaveragedosemightbeeithertooconservativeortoonon

8、-conservativerelativetotheonecorrespondingtothedistributionofthereceiveddoseandhencenotasuitablemeasuretoevaluatealternativeevacuationstrategies.r2006PublishedbyElsevierLtd.Keywords:Evacuationmodel;StochasticMarkovmodel;Emergencyplannin