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1、ApplicationofMarkovmodeltodescribeandanalyzethedynamicemergencyevacuationprocessfortoxicgasleakageaaaaa,KaiZhu,QianglingDuan,LinJiang,WeiguangAn,JinhuaSun*aStateKeyLaboratoryofFireScience,UniversityofScienceandTechnologyofChina,Hefei230026,China.*AddresscorrespondencetoJinhuaSun,StateKey
2、LaboratoryofFireScience,UniversityofScienceandTechnologyofChina,Hefei230026;sunjh@ustc.edu.cn.AbstractBasedonthecharacteristicsofthechemicalindustrypark,amodifieddiscretestatestochasticMarkovevacuationmodelisdevelopedtostimulatethemovementoftheevacuees.Consideringthetoxicgaseffectsimpair
3、ingtheroutecapacityandtheinherenttravelconditions,theevacuationareaisdividedintothreepartstoreflectthedifferentproportionofthepossiblegasinhalationandtimecostinchoosinganevacuationroute.Thetransitionoftheevacueesfromroadtoroadisaccordingtotheone-steptransitionprobability,andthesolutionof
4、themodifiedMarkovmodelprovidesthedynamicspatialandtemporalevacuee’sdistributionwhichismoreinconformitywiththeactualsituationinthepark.Finally,consideringthemovementsoftheevacueeswiththefunctionoftime,theoutsiderescueteamcouldmakeeffectiveemergencyresponseonthebasisofthedemandsduringthewh
5、oleevacuationprocess.Keywords:emergencyevacuation;StochasticMarkovmodel;chemicalindustrypark;gasleakage1.IntroductionInrecentdecades,moreandmorechemicalindustrydistrictshavebeenfoundedindevelopingcountrieslikeBrazil,India,andChina.Inspiteofpromotingthedevelopmentofindustryandeconomicstos
6、omeextent,italsobringsunpredictabledisastersforhandlingplentyofhazardousmaterials.JustinAugustthisyear,anaccidentofliquidammonialeakagehappenedinShanghaiinwhich15peoplewerepoisonedtodeathand8peopleweresevereinjured.Suchseriousaccidentshaveheightenedtheawarenessofthethreatworldwideandappe
7、aledforamorescientificandeffectivesecuritysystemmechanism.Peopleemergencyevacuationisaveryimportantpartofthesecuritysystem.Itcanimprovedisastermanagementandhelpmitigatetheadverseeffectsbysavingpeople’sliveswhenanaccidenthappensinwhichaneffectiveevacuationprocessisorganize
