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1、Influentials,Networks,andPublicOpinionFormationDUNCANJ.WATTSPETERSHERIDANDODDS*Acentralideainmarketinganddiffusionresearchisthatinfluentials—aminorityofindividualswhoinfluenceanexceptionalnumberoftheirpeers—areimportanttotheformationofpublicopinion.Hereweexaminethisidea,whichwecallthe“influ
2、entialshypothesis,”usingaseriesofcomputersimulationsofinterpersonalinfluenceprocesses.Undermostconditionsthatweconsider,wefindthatlargecascadesofinfluencearedrivennotbyinfluentialsbutbyacriticalmassofeasilyinfluencedindividuals.Althoughourresultsdonotexcludethepossibilitythatin-fluentialscanb
3、eimportant,theysuggestthattheinfluentialshypothesisrequiresmorecarefulspecificationandtestingthanithasreceived.nthe1940sand1950s,PaulLazarsfeld,ElihuKatz,andFIGURE1Icolleagues(KatzandLazarsfeld1955;Lazarsfeld,Ber-SCHEMATICOFTHETWO-STEPFLOWMODELelson,andGaudet1968)formulatedabreakthroughth
4、eoryOFINFLUENCEofpublicopinionformationthatsoughttoreconciletheroleofmediainfluencewiththegrowingrealizationthat,inavarietyofdecision-makingscenarios,rangingfrompoliticaltopersonal,individualsmaybeinfluencedmorebyexposuretoeachotherthantothemedia.Accordingtotheirtheory,illustratedschemati
5、callyinfigure1,asmallminorityof“opinionleaders”(stars)actasintermediariesbetweenthemassmediaandthemajorityofsociety(circles).Becauseinformation,andtherebyinfluence“flows”fromthemediathroughopinionleaderstotheirrespectivefollowers,KatzandLazarsfeld(1955)calledtheirmodelthe“two-stepflow”ofcom
6、munication,incontrastwiththethenparadigmaticone-step,or“hypodermic,”modelthattreatedindividualsasatomizedobjectsofmediainfluence(Bineham1988).Inthedecadesaftertheintroductionofthetwo-stepflow,theideaofopinionleaders,or“influentials”astheyarealsocalled(Merton1968),cametooccupyacentralplacei
7、ntheliteraturesofthediffusionofinnovations(Coleman,Katz,andMenzel1966;Rogers1995;Valente1995),communi-cationsresearch(Weimann1994),andmarketing(Chanand*DuncanJ.Wattsisprofessorofsociology,ColumbiaUniversity,NewYork,NY10025(djw24@columbia.edu).PeterSheridanDoddsisassistantprofes
