Rubinstein - 1988 - similarity base

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1、JOURNALOFECONOMICTHEORY46,145-153(1988)SimilarityandDecision-makingunderRisk(IsThereaUtilityTheoryResolutiontotheAllaisParadox?)ARIELRUBINSTEIN*DepartmentofEconomics,TheHehreH’University.Jerusalem,IsraelReceivedJanuary5,1987:revisedSeptember29,1987ItisarguedthattheAllaisparadoxrevealsacertainpr

2、opertyofthedecisionschemeweusetodeterminethepreferenceofonelotteryoveranother.Thedecisionschemeisbasedontheuseofsimilarityrelationsontheprobabilityandprizespaces.Itisprovedthatforeverypairofsimilarityrelationsthereisessentiallyonlyonepreferenceconsistentwiththedecisionschemeandthesimilarities.I

3、tisclaimedthattheresultshowsabasicdifficultyinreconcilingutilitytheorywithexperimentaldata.JournalofEconomicLiteratureClassificationNumber:026.(~1988AcademicPress.Inc1.INTR~OUCTI~NTheexperimentalworkonchoiceunderriskprovidesevidencethathumanbehaviorisveryofteninconsistentwithexpectedutilitytheo

4、ry.Theresultsseemtobestronglysupportedbyourown“thoughtexperiments.”Thestrengthoftheresultsisdemonstratedbythefactthatthesephenomenaareoftendeemedparadoxical.CritiquesofexpectedutilitytheoryasadescriptivetheoryhaveledcountlessscholarstoalterthevonNeumann-Morgensternaxiomsinordertoestablishaltern

5、ativeutilityformswhichwouldbeconsistentwiththeexperimentalevidence.Inthetraditionalapproachalistofaxiomsissuggestedandisproventoimplyacertainfunctionalformoftheutilityrepresentations.Someoftheseaxiomsareconsistencyrequirementsinthesensethattheyrequiredependenciesofthepreferenceoverdifferentpair

6、sofelements.Acommonaxiomistheindependenceaxiom:ifL,2L,thenforalltandforallL,*IbenetittedfromdiscussionswithPeterFishburn,AndreuMas-Colell,AmosTversky,CathyWeinberger,AsherWolinsky,MenachemYaari,andespeciallyNitzaKasirandUziSegal,whomIwouldliketothank.IalsothankMarkMachinaformanycommentswhichhel

7、pedmetointegratethepaperintotheliterature.1450022-0531/88$3.00Copyrightic:,1988byAcademicPress.Inc.Allrightsolreproductioninanyformreserved.146ARIELRUBINSTEINt.L,0(1-t).Lkt.L20(1-t).L(thesymbol@denotestheprobabilitymixtureoperatio