《规划工具与技术》ppt课件

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1、1管理學第九章規劃工具與技術PlanningToolsandTechniques任維廉Youcantrustacrystalballaboutasfarasyouthrowit.—FaithPopcorn,USfuturologist預測未來趨勢專家IfJapancan,whycan’twe?Benchmarking23綱要9.1評估環境之技術9.2分配資源的技術9.3其他規劃工具49.1評估環境之技術AssessingtheEnvironment1.環境掃瞄(scanning)2.預測(forecasting)3.標竿競爭(be

2、nchmarking)討論：績效評估矩陣圖與競爭形勢分析圖5EnvironmentalScanningThescreeningoflargeamountsofinformationtoanticipateandinterpretchangeintheenvironment.CompetitorIntelligence知己知彼Mayinvolvereverseengineering(p.269)ofcompetingproductstodiscovertechnicalinnovations.legalandethicalGlob

3、alScanning6Exhibit9–1ForecastingTechniquesQuantitativeTimeseriesanalysisRegressionmodelsEconometricmodelsEconomicindicatorsSubstitutioneffectQualitativeJuryofopinionSalesforcecompositionCustomerevaluation7MakingForecastingMoreEffectiveUsesimpleforecastingmethods.Compa

4、reeachforecastwithitscorresponding“nochange”forecast.Don’trelyonasingleforecastingmethod.Don’tassumethattheturningpointsinatrendcanbeaccuratelyidentified.Shortenthetimeperiodcoveredbyaforecast.CPFR(CollaborativePlanning,Forecasting,andReplenishment)Software(p.271).Ast

5、andardizedwayfororganizationstousetheInternettoexchangedata.89.2分配資源之技術AllocatingResources1.預算：收入，費用，利潤，現金2.排程：Gantt圖，PERT網路分析圖3.損益平衡分析4.線性規劃討論：若只能在McDonald(7-eleven)用餐，則在支出最少，且滿足最基本營養的前提下，應如何選購餐點之種類數量。9Exhibit9–4SuggestionsforImprovingBudgetingCollaborateandcommunica

6、te.Beflexible.Goalsshoulddrivebudgets—budgetsshouldnotdeterminegoals.Coordinatebudgetingthroughouttheorganization.Usebudgeting/planningsoftwarewhenappropriate.Rememberthatbudgetsaretools.Rememberthatprofitsresultfromsmartmanagement,notbecauseyoubudgetedforthem.109.3其他

7、規劃工具專案管理軟體:Project20002.劇本為基礎之規劃3.為未預期事件作準備討論：1.豐田汽車管理模式2.TOC制約法11補充：Teamwork1.Casestudy:amanager’sdilemma(p.267)2.Thinkingcriticallyaboutethics(p.270)3.Internet-basedexercise(p.284)4.Team-basedexercise(p.298)*5.EthicalDilemmaExercise(p.288)12作業一上網作業進入未來世界學會（TheWorldF

8、utureSociety），看它的雜誌〈未來家〉（TheFuturist），將會有助於你做環境預測及策略性思考，試著寫出你的心得。13回顧1.CompetitivestrategyVS.Benchmarking2.Budget:planning,c