American Strategy and the Shifting Nuclear Balance, 1949-1954

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1、A"WastingAsset"MarcTrachtenbergAmericanStrategyandtheShiftingNuclearBalance,1949-19541InJanuary1946,GeneralLeslieGroves,thewartimecommanderoftheManhattanProject,preparedamem-orandumonthemilitaryimplicationsoftheatomicbomb."Ifwewereruthlesslyrealistic,"hewrote,

2、"wewouldnotpermitanyforeignpowerwithwhichwearenotfirmlyallied,andinwhichwedonothaveabsoluteconfidence,tomakeorpossessatomicweapons.Ifsuchacountrystartedtomakeatomicweaponswewoulddestroyitscapacitytomakethembeforeithadprogressedfarenoughtothreatenus."'Inthelate

3、1940sandwellintotheearly1950s,thebasicideathattheUnitedStatesshouldnotjustsitbackandallowahostilepowerliketheSovietUniontoacquireamassivenucleararsenal-thatamuchmore"active"andmore"positive"policyhadtobeseriouslyconsidered-wassurprisinglywidespread.TheAmerican

4、government,ofcourse,nevercameclosetoimplementingapreventivewarstrategy.Asfarasthepublicasawholewasconcerned,theideaseemstohavehadonlyalimitedappeaL2Whatrandeep,however,wasatremendoussenseofforeboding.IftheSovietswere.allowedtodevelopnuclearforcesoftheirown,the

5、rewasnotellingwhatmightTheauthorisgratefultotheMacArthurFoundation,theSocialScienceResearchCouncil,andtohiscolleaguesandfriendsatMITandelsewherefortheirsupport.AnearlierversionofthisarticlewaspresentedtoaconferenceheldinMay1988undertheauspicesoftheAmericanAcad

6、emyofArtsandSciencesCommitteeonHistory,theSocialSciences,andNationalSecurityAffairs.Theauthorwouldespeciallyliketothankthosewhotookpartinthatmeetingfortheircommentsandcriticism.MarcTrachtenbergisAssociateProfessorofHistoryattheUniversityofPennsylvania.Thisarti

7、clewaswrittenwhilehewasaMacArthurlSSRCFellowinInternationalPeaceandSecurityintheDefenseandArmsControlStudiesProgramatMIT'sCenterforInternationalStudies.1.GeneralLeslieGroves,"StatementontheatomicbombanditseffectontheArmy,"appendixtoJCS147716,January21,1946,inC

8、CS471.6(8-15-45),sec.2,RecordGroup(RG)218,UnitedStatesNationalArchives(USNA),Washington,D.C.Thereisaslightlydifferentversion,datedJanuary2,1946,inU.S.DepartmentofState,ForeignRelat