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1、ChapterChapter44TheBalanceofPaymentsThefirstthreechaptersofthisbookprovideinsightsintothenatureofforeignexchangemarketsandforeignexchangerisks.Tounderstandtheseconceptsmoredeeply,youneedtounderstandtheeconomicforcesthatcauseexchangeratestofluctuate.Exchang
2、eratesrespondtodemandandsupplytotradecurrencies.Thesedemandsandsuppliesarisefrominternationaltradeflowsandinternationalcapitalflows.Plentyofusefulinformationabouttheseinternationalflowsisprovidedbythebalanceofpayments,whichrecordsthepaymentsbetweenresident
3、sofonecountryandtherestoftheworldoveragiventimeperiod.Assuch,ithelpsshedagreatdealoflightonthesupplyanddemandforvariouscurrencies,thepossibleevolutionoftheirexchangerates,andtheglobalfinancialmarketplaceingeneral.Balanceofpaymentsstatisticsarediscusseddail
4、ybypoliticians,thenewsmedia,andcurrencyanalystsatcorporations,commercialbanks,investmentbanks,andmutualfunds.Currencytraderseagerlyawaitthereleaseofnewbalanceofpaymentsstatisticsbecausetheyknowexchangerateswillmovewiththenewinformation.Wewillseehowthebal-a
5、ncesonvarioussubaccountsarelinkedtodomesticandinternationalsavingandinvest-mentdecisionsandultimatelyhowtheymaydetermineacountry’sfinancialandeconomichealth.Forexample,multinationalfirmsshouldrecognizethatpersistentcurrentaccountdeficitsindevelopingcountri
6、escansignalthatcurrencydevaluationsarelikelytooccurthere,withpotentiallydireeconomicramifications.Indevelopedcountries,persistentcur-rentaccountdeficitscanleadlegislatorstounleashprotectionistpolicies,suchastariffsandembargoesonimportedgoodsandservices.Eve
7、rycompanyintheworlddoingbusi-nesswithChinakeenlyfollowstheeffectthattheU.S.tradedeficitwithChinaishavingonthetwocountries’tradepolicies.4.1THEBALANCEOFPAYMENTS:CONCEPTSANDTERMINOLOGYAcountry’sbalanceofpayments(BOP)recordsthevalueofthetransactionsbetweenits
8、residents,businesses,andgovernmentwiththerestoftheworldforaspecificperiodoftime,suchasamonth,aquarter,orayear.Hence,thebalanceofpaymentssummarizestheinter-nationalflowsofgoodsandservicesandchangesintheownersh
