资源描述：
《+超越人类编史（英文）》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。
1、WhenWillAIExceedHumanPerformance?EvidencefromAIExpertsKatjaGrace1,2,JohnSalvatier2,AllanDafoe1,3,BaobaoZhang3,andOwainEvans11FutureofHumanityInstitute,OxfordUniversity2AIImpacts3DepartmentofPoliticalScience,YaleUniversityAbstractAdvancesinartificialintelligence(AI)willtransformmodernlifeby
2、reshapingtransportation,health,science,finance,andthemilitary[1,2,3].Toadaptpublicpolicy,weneedtobetteranticipatetheseadvances[4,5].HerewereporttheresultsfromalargesurveyofmachinelearningresearchersontheirbeliefsaboutprogressinAI.ResearcherspredictAIwilloutper-formhumansinmanyactivitiesint
3、henexttenyears,suchastranslatinglanguages(by2024),writinghigh-schoolessays(by2026),drivingatruck(by2027),workinginretail(by2031),writingabestsellingbook(by2049),andworkingasasurgeon(by2053).Researchersbelievethereisa50%chanceofAIoutperforminghumansinalltasksin45yearsandofautomatingallhuma
4、njobsin120years,withAsianrespondentsexpectingthesedatesmuchsoonerthanNorthAmericans.TheseresultswillinformdiscussionamongstresearchersandpolicymakersaboutanticipatingandmanagingtrendsinAI.IntroductionAdvancesinartificialintelligence(AI)willhavemassivesocialconsequences.Self-drivingtech-nol
5、ogymightreplacemillionsofdrivingjobsoverthecomingdecade.Inadditiontopossibleunemployment,thetransitionwillbringnewchallenges,suchasrebuildinginfrastructure,pro-tectingvehiclecyber-security,andadaptinglawsandregulations[5].Newchallenges,bothforAIdevelopersandpolicy-makers,willalsoarisefrom
6、applicationsinlawenforcement,militarytech-nology,andmarketing[6].Toprepareforthesechallenges,accurateforecastingoftransformativeAIwouldbeinvaluable.SeveralsourcesprovideobjectiveevidenceaboutfutureAIadvances:trendsincomputinghardware[7],taskperformance[8],andtheautomationoflabor[9].Thepre
7、dictionsofAIexpertsprovidecrucialadditionalinformation.WesurveyalargerandmorerepresentativesampleofAIexpertsthananystudytodate[10,11].OurquestionscoverthetimingofAIadvances(includingbothpracticalapplicationsofAIandtheautomationofvarioushumanjobs),aswellasthesocialan
