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1、WhenWillAIExceedHumanPerformance?EvidencefromAIExpertsKatjaGrace1,2,JohnSalvatier2,AllanDafoe1,3,BaobaoZhang3,andOwainEvans11FutureofHumanityInstitute,OxfordUniversity2AIImpacts3DepartmentofPoliticalScience,YaleUniversityAbstractAdvancesinartificialintelligence(AI)willtr
2、ansformmodernlifebyreshapingtransportation,health,science,finance,andthemilitary[1,2,3].Toadaptpublicpolicy,weneedtobetteranticipatetheseadvances[4,5].HerewereporttheresultsfromalargesurveyofmachinelearningresearchersontheirbeliefsaboutprogressinAI.ResearcherspredictAIwi
3、lloutper-formhumansinmanyactivitiesinthenexttenyears,suchastranslatinglanguages(by2024),writinghigh-schoolessays(by2026),drivingatruck(by2027),workinginretail(by2031),writingabestsellingbook(by2049),andworkingasasurgeon(by2053).Researchersbelievethereisa50%chanceofAIout
4、performinghumansinalltasksin45yearsandofautomatingallhumanjobsin120years,withAsianrespondentsexpectingthesedatesmuchsoonerthanNorthAmericans.TheseresultswillinformdiscussionamongstresearchersandpolicymakersaboutanticipatingandmanagingtrendsinAI.IntroductionAdvancesinart
5、ificialintelligence(AI)willhavemassivesocialconsequences.Self-drivingtech-nologymightreplacemillionsofdrivingjobsoverthecomingdecade.Inadditiontopossibleunemployment,thetransitionwillbringnewchallenges,suchasrebuildinginfrastructure,pro-tectingvehiclecyber-security,andad
6、aptinglawsandregulations[5].Newchallenges,bothforAIdevelopersandpolicy-makers,willalsoarisefromapplicationsinlawenforcement,militarytech-nology,andmarketing[6].Toprepareforthesechallenges,accurateforecastingoftransformativeAIwouldbeinvaluable.Severalsourcesprovideobject
7、iveevidenceaboutfutureAIadvances:trendsincomputinghardware[7],taskperformance[8],andtheautomationoflabor[9].ThepredictionsofAIexpertsprovidecrucialadditionalinformation.WesurveyalargerandmorerepresentativesampleofAIexpertsthananystudytodate[10,11].Ourquestionscovertheti
8、mingofAIadvances(includingbothpracticalapplicationsofAIandtheautomationofvarioushumanjobs),aswellasthesocialan
