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1、WhenWillAIExceedHumanPerformance?EvidencefromAIExpertsKatjaGrace1,2,JohnSalvatier2,AllanDafoe1,3,BaobaoZhang3,andOwainEvans11FutureofHumanityInstitute,OxfordUniversity2AIImpacts3DepartmentofPoliticalScience,YaleUniversityAbstractAdvancesinartificialintelligence(AI)willtransformmodernlifebyreshapi
2、ngtransportation,health,science,finance,andthemilitary[1,2,3].Toadaptpublicpolicy,weneedtobetteranticipatetheseadvances[4,5].HerewereporttheresultsfromalargesurveyofmachinelearningresearchersontheirbeliefsaboutprogressinAI.ResearcherspredictAIwilloutper-formhumansinmanyactivitiesinthenexttenyears
3、,suchastranslatinglanguages(by2024),writinghigh-schoolessays(by2026),drivingatruck(by2027),workinginretail(by2031),writingabestsellingbook(by2049),andworkingasasurgeon(by2053).Researchersbelievethereisa50%chanceofAIoutperforminghumansinalltasksin45yearsandofautomatingallhumanjobsin120years,withAs
4、ianrespondentsexpectingthesedatesmuchsoonerthanNorthAmericans.TheseresultswillinformdiscussionamongstresearchersandpolicymakersaboutanticipatingandmanagingtrendsinAI.IntroductionAdvancesinartificialintelligence(AI)willhavemassivesocialconsequences.Self-drivingtech-nologymightreplacemillionsofdriv
5、ingjobsoverthecomingdecade.Inadditiontopossibleunemployment,thetransitionwillbringnewchallenges,suchasrebuildinginfrastructure,pro-tectingvehiclecyber-security,andadaptinglawsandregulations[5].Newchallenges,bothforAIdevelopersandpolicy-makers,willalsoarisefromapplicationsinlawenforcement,military
6、tech-nology,andmarketing[6].Toprepareforthesechallenges,accurateforecastingoftransformativeAIwouldbeinvaluable.SeveralsourcesprovideobjectiveevidenceaboutfutureAIadvances:trendsincomputinghardware[7],taskperformance[8],andtheautomationoflabor[9].ThepredictionsofAIexpertsprovidecrucialadditionalin
7、formation.WesurveyalargerandmorerepresentativesampleofAIexpertsthananystudytodate[10,11].OurquestionscoverthetimingofAIadvances(includingbothpracticalapplicationsofAIandtheautomationofvarioushumanjobs),aswellasthesocia
